Tuesday, September 28, 2010

A larger correction is still due but perhaps still odds favor one more push lower first…

Well, I wrote yesterday’s report, sat back to watch … and was promptly sent to sleep… Seriously, what a waste of a day. At least the world has found a cure for insomnia.

In many ways it made today’s analysis a little easier since none of the longer term projections have really changed. It’ll probably mean that I can only repeat yesterday’s comments for many of the currency pairs as this still remains my view. A larger correction does appear to be looming and that is the basic message. So the remaining issue is whether we’ll see once more Dollar low or whether that correction will develop directly.

I’m sticking with the view offered yesterday. That is, I still see risk of one more push lower for the Dollar before that deeper correction. However, just make sure that you note the break levels that will negate the new low…

If there was any currency pair that I found that caused problems then it is EURJPY. The way I was looking at it really needed a push higher yesterday and the fact this didn’t occur makes it a lot more difficult to fit into the structure I have been considering. This puts me into two minds over the next move. They say that two minds are better than one but it still doesn’t really help me feel any better.

If I have any preferences then it remains higher, mainly because I sense that USDJPY should recover. There is still just a small chance of a minor new low but the impression I get is more bullish. Still, best wait for breaks here but those levels are really not that far off.

AUDUSD seems to match the same patterns as the Europeans – that is, still one more high before a correction. Cautiously USDCAD looks to rally within what I feel will be the last leg of the consolidation since the 23rd April 0.9929 low…

Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+10 pips)

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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