Friday, September 10, 2010

It’s now or never for the Euro and Pound…

Yesterday didn’t quite go as planned… Well, some of it did but not much. I have been bearish for the Euro and Pound and frankly, after yesterday’s moves it does seem like a case of “now or never.” That the Euro and Swissie chose to consolidate was rather frustrating. The decline in the Pound was constructive but now needs to press home the weakness else breaks above recent highs are going to look pretty bullish…

Having said that, in spite of the flat sideways consolidation in the Euro all it did was extend the correction for a longer period and that still implies losses. It can’t fail to go down now otherwise the bearish structure will be blown away. Indeed, to provide some idea of structure the decline should now be pretty persistent and if that fails to develop it will be an added warning that something is wrong.

EURJPY also joined the downside failures – perhaps quite obviously as it should be EURUSD that continues to drive this. What appears to have happened here is that the correction has extended and looks pretty much like a triangle which doesn’t have much more to go. This extension of the consolidation in early trading may well also limit the downside in EURUSD so we may have to be patient for a wee while longer.

Equally that also extends its influence on USDJPY which started off constructively as if it was intent on retesting the lows but then reversed in what appears to be a risk of a minor new corrective high. However, I still have this last leg lower still hanging in the air so keep in mind the combination with the ERUJPY cross to judge timing. I still do not expect an aggressive new low in USDJPY.

USDCHF also baulked at being pushed lower but it still has another leg lower itself and I can’t see too much topside left in this correction so be aware of the downside here also by the end of the day.

AUDUSD… ouch… that appears to be in one of its bulldozer moods with gains still to come. I have a feeling it won’t be as strong as yesterday with a pullback (at least) due before long. USDCAD… flip a coin… but keep in mind the eventual target is still lower. I’ll highlight key break areas that signal follow-through.

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+130 pips)

Have a great weekend.
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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