Monday, September 13, 2010

I really want to remain Euro bearish it doesn’t look like being direct…

I’ve been Euro and Pound bearish for the past two days with only success in the Pound. Even then the corrections have been deep and beginning to gnaw away at the bearish structures. Indeed, while I have been writing the report those resistance areas have broken. We have also seen EURJPY break higher, mostly driven by EURUSD but the risk for USDJPY to extend gains is also present. The latter has a few structures that could develop and this is adding to the general uncertainty.

USDCHF extended its pullback higher but cannot extend any higher without a total daily reversal I feel. I still prefer the downside for one final attempt but Friday’s high cannot be breached… The downside does at least correlate with potential Euro strength but the reliability of their usual correlation has hardly been something on which we can depend recently…

At this point I don’t really want to abandon the more medium term bearish Euro view but this will imply that the correction higher should not extend too far otherwise the entire structure from the 1.3333 high will begin to creak at the edges. If there is any way the larger bearish structure can remain intact it is probably with a more extended sideways consolidation.

I also note that GBPUSD hasn’t really broken its own bearish structure yet but is not that far away. We’ll have to keep an eye on this one as well as I really don’t want to see excessive gains here. Therefore we’re going to have to be aware of breaks levels today and I feel keeping trades for the shorter term is probably a better strategy.

USDJPY is also pushing resistance levels which does make me feel a little uncomfortable. Here I am a little more open for a reversal higher but conservatively we’re going to need a break above the 85.90 swing high to confirm stronger gains and until then I remain open.

AUDUSD is still rallying but there does seem to be good reason to look for a peak, and probably today. Whether this causes a total reversal or just a correction remains to be seen but as a first step look for the expected peak. USDCAD – still overall bearish but with a current risk of consolidation (and possibly messy) before the decline extends further.

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on along with Friday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+15 pips)

Have a profitable week.
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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