Wednesday, September 29, 2010

And one more low again … then we should see the correction begin…

Yesterday wasn’t too bad. Apart from USDJPY (and therefore EURJPY) and GBPUSD the moves I had been looking for developed quite well. Indeed, the dip in the Dollar came pretty much on cue and reached levels around the targets I outlined. However, from what I can see the decline still hasn’t quite finished so we should expect more of the same today.

That “same” should therefore imply a pullback over the first half of the day and a drop by the second half to reach even lower Dollar targets by the end of the day or by early tomorrow. I’ll stick with the same song – that once we have seen this decline there should be a deeper correction. Yes, just a correction. This Dollar still has some way to go on the downside yet. However, the period of the correction should be longer than we’ve seen of late.

Let me just reiterate. There are major multi-year bearish Dollar cycles that should basically imply losses fro the coming 2 years. Once the anticipated correction has finished I would not be surprised to see EURUSD top 1.40 before we get a more sustainable correction. Even that is unlikely to be the end of the rally from 1.1879…

Just concentrating back on today again, GBPUSD was another currency pair that went a little weird on me. The high appears to have been an extremely unusual projection ratio but does slot in well with the rest of the structure and this also should either see sideways consolidation or a quick dip before another rally that may well top the 1.5997 high.

USDJPY chose the downside against my recommendation and screwed up EURJPY in the process. I can accept the USDJPY decline as it was always a bit of a coin toss. However, to keep within the bullish expectation for EURJPY implies an amazingly complicated structure. I can’t see that it’s completed its rally but I do feel there is more to come to retest the daily 114.73 corrective high and probably a bit more. At that point I’ll want to look at this one just in case it found the larger low I had been looking for at 105.42…

AUDUSD – much the same – still needs another high before a deeper correction. I have to say this wave structure looks particularly bullish too… The 0.9849 high may not hold for too long… USDCAD looks like it’s going to move sideways for today.

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+50 pips)

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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