Monday, August 30, 2010

Given the last two day’s results I think I should stop thinking…

Very clearly the structure I had been watching was completely wrong and this calls for an adjustment. It doesn’t alter my overall Dollar bullish view but does imply the current correction should extend a little further before gains begin to emerge once more. I do feel we’ll end the week higher again… Indeed, having reviewed I feel the correction could well end by either the end of today or perhaps just into tomorrow to leave the rest of the week allowing Dollar gains to resume.

With luck this should allow USDCHF to finally reach its long term target and then move back into correlation with the other Europeans as the Dollar begins to pick up again but this time we should see USDCHF maintain its rally with more sustainability. I would estimate that there is probably another 2-3 weeks of upside left in the Dollar before a deep correction – unless we get some catalyst that causes the market to become more rabid again.

Even the EURJPY structure, which had been working really well, broke down on Friday. I haven’t changed my overall bearish view here either – unless it extends too high… However, I see this potentially follow EURUSD to a peak and reversing lower. In fact, this may even be a sharp turn lower as USDJPY has just broken above a key resistance and may well be indicating a total reversal. There’s still some concern here but looking a bit more hopeful. If this does keep moving higher then we could see some solid gains.

AUDUSD – I can repeat much the same comments as I have above on a break in structure but here also I don’t think we’ll see runaway gains and look for a corrective peak before long to generate losses. USDCAD…appears to be approaching a short term low – whether this forces a new high or just a correction is less certain. Looking at the weekly chart and the basic consolidation for the past 6 months or so I have a greater feeling that this will continue until the Dollar finds the high in this rally…

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+95 pips)

Have a profitable week.
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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