Friday, July 30, 2010

The turn is imminent… today maybe … or Monday…

Please note that The Daily Forecaster will be taking its summer break from the 9th-13th August

Yesterday saw the right reactions from both USDJPY and USDCHF to play catch-up with the Euro & Pound which maintained their gradual, rather choppy & sloppy rallies. In particular the latter pair maintained the gains in just about the right degrees to keep the basic bullish structure intact. There should be a slight deviation between the two earlier today as EURUSD needs to see a slightly deeper correction now while GBPUSD just needs to maintain a sideways consolidation. The resultant pushes higher should ideally take us to our target.

In particular GBPUSD does look like forming that rising expanding triangle – not quite as I had expected yesterday – but may well bounce from the support line today. This pattern is rarely seen but the implication is normally really quite dramatic with a strong reversal indicated so watch that one in particular.

USDJPY extended its losses, not yet to the 86.25 low but the next decline should take that out quite easily and I don’t really expect too much of a reaction there, if at all… USDCHF too dropped like a stone once the 1.0537 low was breached. Clearly these two still have a lot more to do to if they are to reach the targets I have been anticipating. Of the two I am more confident of USDJPY but there is a valid higher target that we need also observe. I think the approach should be that all these four majors should be approaching respective targets at the same time which will help decide at which of the two USDCHF will finally stall.

However, clearly these latter two need to make pretty solid losses like yesterday and should therefore provide the better return on the day.

AUDUSD … rallied well from support but not well enough. I think it will make new highs but not sure these will be particularly strong. My concern here is that it does still seem to point to a larger bullish structure, way beyond the equivalent sort of areas I’m expecting in the four majors… It does bug me a little as if the Greenback is going to rally again I can’t see it happening without the Aussie losing out. Therefore take care with that one.

USDCAD… ahhh… that’s just USDCAD… However, yesterday’s action does tend to favor the upside…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+60 pips)

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

No comments:

Post a Comment