Friday, July 23, 2010

Something’s afoot… and it’s not 12 inches…

Please note that The Daily Forecaster will be taking its summer break from the 9th-13th August

Yesterday’s analysis was a bit of a mess really. What’s more the Europeans began to diverge once again, well briefly anyway. More telling was that the structural development just didn’t coincide with what I feel should be happening. When this happens it suggests some other event is occurring, a morphing of the corrective structures that risk extension of consolidation patterns.

First of all EURUSD just didn’t correct low enough which left the normal projections exceeding target. GBPUSD also failed to reach target and saw a pullback, one which looks more like a correction recycling rather than the start of a fresh bullish attempt. USDCHF … well that just remained itself.

Even USDJPY failed to press the 86.25 low fully and even this looks like forcing a new corrective high. Most telling for me was EURJPY which appeared to complete a full corrective structure from the 113.37 high. The implication is a new high above 113.37… in fact I wouldn’t be too surprised to see an eventual move to as high as 115.78-06 now…

Even AUDUSD and USDCAD look like recycling corrections to retain a rather erratic and complicated near term outlook.

Overall this doesn’t alter the underlying belief that we’re going to see the Dollar lose ground to the targets I have been suggesting and that should always be kept in mind, but it does look as if the corrections are going to become more complicated assuming my observations are correct.

Thus, if I have any broad outlook today it does look like we’re going to see the Dollar correct higher early in the day and then see that reverse to generate marginal new lows before the whole move recycles. Thus, take care today and it does seem to warn of some choppy reactions…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (-11 pips)

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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