Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Today should be an up-a-bit… down-a-bit day…

Well, not everything went my way yesterday. There were some doubts in my mind yesterday due to the Dollar bullish divergences and it seems to be those which generated the deeper pullback than I had been anticipating. This should mean that the correction should continue today, possibly with some ups and downs but I think the situation may well be resolved by the end of today or perhaps early tomorrow.

The underlying impression is still Dollar bearish within a larger correction so this correction/consolidation is just a temporary holding period within the entire picture. Again, EURJPY may well be a possible indicator in this consolidation. As you know I’ve been looking for this to rally to above 114.00 but it has chosen to follow a more sideways path, the pattern morphing from a triangle to a flat type correction that still looks as if there is a dip to come before it can rally.

I still see EURUSD being the driver for that rally which should still see USDJPY dip following this pullback – again much deeper than I had expected. I was a bit disappointed with the lack of follow-through but considering this decline in USDJPY should be a correction the more complicated route doesn’t really change the larger structure. That larger structure does still seem to imply a broad 89.30-92.10 range trading for a while longer yet.

Both GBPUSD and AUDUSD did well to force a new high and as such remain within their basic respective uptrend. Actually, of the two, AUDUSD may even have a chance of making a new high today… GBPUSD doesn’t seem to have any chance. I still favor a marginal new low here in line with the up-a-bit… down-a-bit Dollar expectation today.

Finally USDCAD… Just as I thought the coast was clear the Loonie lunged back… I still feel this is just a correction but does seem to make the ultimate target much lower… Before that a down-a-bit… up-a-bit… pattern should work.

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+65 pips)

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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