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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Friday, June 11, 2010

There are days and “those” days… yesterday was the latter…

“Those” days are frustrating! I’ve been planning this larger reversal for days… then go and mess it up… Thankfully Hare Kiri swords are not easily available in Tokyo these days otherwise I may have done some shopping…

The Dollar has turned and we are now seeing a correction lower. It has some way to go. To give you an idea EURUSD should visit 1.3200-50 and USDCHF to 1.1068 at least, possibly even 1.0930. Being a correction however, the questions are just how it will develop and how long it will last. My feelings are that it should be at least a month or maybe as long as a month and a half…

However, first things first… we have to see where the current decline is going to end? To be honest I think the majority of it is over. A correction is still due before the target is reached but probably by end of today we’ll see the correction begin to develop. The next stage of the correction within the correction is more like flipping a coin and will be where price will need to be studied to see how it will complete the move, whether it will be simple, complex, fast or slow…

USDJPY… well, it did everything I asked of it yesterday. It dipped back down to 90.83, recovered to 91.40 to make the descending triangle look like a solid odds-on bet… then it broke higher… Lesson one: never anticipate a pattern – wait for confirmation… Given the pullback in EURJPY it seems that similarly the downside target there is not about to be met. Thus the overall risk does appear to be higher… well, for now at least. We’ll still need USDJPY to break cleanly above the 92.07 high, but assuming it does, we should be seeing some steady gains. Overall, EURJPY looks as if it has potential back towards the 114.13 high…

AUDUSD did move higher as expected but has exceeded the cautious target. Likewise a correction is due here but there are still new highs to come but maybe not far above the 0.8548 high. USDCAD declined further. However, that’s coming up to support that should generate a deeper correction too…

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+55 pips)

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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