Thursday, June 17, 2010

A shenanigan within a shenanigan can be as bad as a correction within a correction…

It’s a fascinating pastime attempting to identify price structures in order to understand what’s going on and where price will go. Corrective structures are the complicated sections and when you get corrections within corrections the world seems to implode for me… Well, now we’re getting shenanigans within shenanigans…

However, one way of another I do feel today will finally set us on our course, whichever that will be… but if I have my way it will be the resumption of the bearish Dollar correction.

Yesterday provided some complications which is not an entirely unusual event. While EURUSD remained stagnant USDCHF actually made downward progress. Given the fact USDCHF has a much closer corrective target it does bring a certain amount of concern. Maybe it will just be a deeper correction, events which can tend to occur in daily charts.

However, the stronger signal appears to be coming from GBPUSD and I feel this along with EURUSD could well provide us with clues. Basically, as far as I can see, to keep both of these pairs alive and bullish GBPUSD should remain above 1.4669-82 while EURUSD moves sideways above 1.2270 (initially below 1.2325.) While these two events match we should see a break higher. Now, quite what this means for USDCHF is that it cannot break back above 1.1322-38. Ideally it should move lower directly.

Now, we still have EURJPY on its route to the 114.13 target. That still seems to be quite solid. What is annoying me are the shenanigans within shenanigans within shenanigans within shenanigans in USDJPY. It certainly hasn’t been able to really state its bullish claim and is still at risk of another dip lower. However, I would really prefer that it waits just a bit to allow EURUSD to take the cross higher.

Now, assuming I’m right in all this the initial Dollar losses shouldn’t be dramatic as there are corrections to be had on the way. This is reflected in AUDUSD also which is still steadily making headway. I have had a target at 0.8755 for a pullback but there is risk of this occurring from a little below. However, it is tending to display the potential to correlate with the Europeans.

USDCAD – must now climb to above 1.0359 or suffer another bungee jump below 1.0223…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+35 pips)

Take care & good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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