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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Friday, June 25, 2010

All being well today should see the Dollar rally again…

Well yesterday mostly went my way albeit with a few deviations along the way… The end result though was the Euro reversing within the zone I has suggested, GBPUSD falling between two stones and USDCHF making a minor new low but therefore does provide a good idea of its final stalling point before the downtrend resumes.

At this stage there is little more I can add to yesterday’s comments. Assuming I get my way today we’ll see the Dollar rally to see EURUSD to a lower low, USDCHF back to its corrective high (possibly plus up to 20 pips) and GBPUSD may have potential all the way back to 1.4686 again… There is just one small risk that we could see one more push lower for the Dollar before the strength I expect develops…

From that point there could be some deviation between them. GBPUSD and USDCHF should see new extremes but I am more doubtful about EURUSD. It’s possible to see that rally to new highs but we’ll have to see the reaction from today’s Dollar highs (or perhaps it can stretch into Monday) to see how aggressive the move will be. Well, that we’ll have to wait for. Today we can just concentrate on the Dollar’s rally…

USDJPY and EURJPY did what they should ’a too… USDJPY ended just 9 pips below the 89.30 target while EURJPY stalled at the higher end of the 109.30-52 range. The reaction so far has been positive and I feel we’ll get follow-through but until key swing highs in both are broken we’ll have to retain an open mind since momentum didn’t provide the best of reversal signals. Indeed, if USDJPY breaks below 89.21 and then the 88.97 low I would really begin to get a bit concerned.

Overall it appears to be in a weekly consolidation and I have felt that the consolidation top has probably not been seen yet. If we see break lower then we could be seeing a different picture… Back above 90.50-60 USDJPY and 111.12-35 EURJPY would bring increased confidence.

AUDUSD lost out over the day as expected and I still feel this should extend losses a bit further. On USDCAD I am beginning to consider a larger daily consolidation which could take us higher again…

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+40 pips)

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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