Friday, May 7, 2010

We haven’t seen the end of this panic yet… the only question is when extension will develop…

I turned on my PC, looked at my charts and then decided to call into my office to say that I had a headache and would stay at home. Then I realized my office is at home… No such relief for an analyst…

Frenetic, volatile and energetic are all descriptions of what occurred yesterday. I prefer the words crazy and screwed up… I have learned over the years to try and contain excessive forecasts as they tend to look stupid. However, when this happens I look stupid… Thank goodness the market doesn’t repeat this too frequently!

Scenarios got blown out of the water within minutes and there was no time to react. Needless to say the analysis this morning has been quite intense and I have attempted to discover the true structure of the moves but with the market as it is what I shall present really needs to be handled with care and make sure that you have good trade set-ups to support a trade.

The Euro is dead… long live the Euro. Well, not dead to be honest and I still feel there is a good chance of an end to this move over the next week or two. But let’s just say we’ll need a few things to happen to confirm this idea. Right now it’s very tough to fight the rabid bearishness. If I have any preference then we may just see follow-through again today but by nowhere near as crazy as yesterday. A correction is due I think but come next week the Dollar can resume its rally.

If I have identified the scrambled new structures correctly then there does seem to be a common theme across currencies of a due correction. The key will be identifying the completion and when the market resumes its panic.

There may be one exception in USDJPY. I feel there is a slim chance we may have seen a low here already – which will come to the relief of EURJPY which lost around about 8% of its value yesterday. I don’t think I have seen a daily move in my 28 years of markets which has registered much above 6%...

AUDUSD is in the same boat – a correction due but probably an attack close to the 0.8578 low. USDCAD was even stronger than expected and to be honest is a better target for this part of the wave structure. It risks some consolidation but new highs are expected here too…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report.

Have a relaxed and peaceful weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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