Friday, May 28, 2010

There should be more Dollar losses to come…

With Monday being Memorial Day in the States the next report will be on Tuesday

The underlying call for a weaker Dollar was right yesterday but what was frustrating was the lack of marginal new highs before they developed… However, I’m not sure it materially alters the outcome which means there should be further losses to come today and may just stretch into Monday.

Having said that, the extremely choppy behavior in early N.A. trading was not really expected but does still fit into the overall Dollar bearish structure. In particular USDCHF turned in a complex correction but still targets the 1.1374-86 area and I’ll be using that as a marker for the other Europeans. First thing seems to suggest a small pullback but I doubt this will be too deep and by early European trading we should be seeing the Dollar lose out further. More complete details of support & resistance will be in the individual analyses.

USDJPY held on by the skin of its teeth and spent the day looking firm and has probably done enough to suggest we’ll see more. I feel over time this should lead to a retest close to the 93.63 high. The combination of EURUSD and USDJPY should mean the EURJPY cross is going to probably be the better value for money and certainly reach the 114.38 corrective high and I suspect further.

AUDUSD joined in with the others in ignoring my thoughts that a minor new low should occur before the recovery and just took off by itself. Like the Europeans this has further to go still… And finally USDCAD also did its own thing… I’m just a bit concerned with this one as the best fit structure I can see is a move right back to the 1.0110 low… That is quite a call though this currency pair can do loonie things but it will be well to be a bit careful on this one.

All in all I still feel the moves we are seeing are probably more corrective than a total reversal in the overall trends so unless key levels break I’ll stick with this being the last stage of the larger correction…

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report. (+135 pips)

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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