Tuesday, April 20, 2010

USDJPY and GBPUSD appear to have completed their corrections – but not EURUSD and USDCHF…

Yesterday was pretty close to expectations and I feel the picture is beginning to clear but with perhaps a little conflict across the board in terms of whether we have seen completed corrections. USDJPY and GBPUSD appear to have done so... I favor EURUSD and USDCHF seeing extension of yesterday’s moves.

It’s not too much of a conflict as both USDJPY and GBPUSD are due corrections to the recoveries they made. Therefore today is probably more about synchronizing the pullbacks in these two against the extensions in the European buddies. In the larger picture there is a more interesting deviance in that there seems more risk of resumptions in the rallies in USDJPY and GBPUSD… which puts a lot of emphasis on GBPJPY of course… However, it seems more likely that EURUSD and USDCHF will remain in a sideways trading range, probably for most of this week.

AUDUSD also should have completed its downside yesterday and this should not be pushing higher too which places a strong chance of a robust rally in AUDJPY also. In contrast I feel that EURJPY needs to see a new low which implies at some point USDJPY and EURUSD must start moving lower in tandem but could leave AUDUSD and GBPUSD behind.

I should also not that from what I feel is occurring in GBPUSD there is some implication that we’ll see another strong rally over this week. Now, quite where this ends has some ambiguity attached to it. If I have any preference I’d say 1.5930 at least… However, before reaching there we should pay respect at the levels I was mentioning last week at 1.5581 and 1.5665.

Finally, I got USDCAD completely wrong but in the larger picture I feel we have quite a way to go on the upside. Today should be limited to 1.0275-00 to generate a pullback before the next larger push higher.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+195 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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