Monday, April 12, 2010

The Dollar’s gap lower on open raises doubts and prompts caution

The first thing I should state today is that the conditions under which I have had to perform the analysis have been less than ideal with my usual charting software having initial technical difficulties which forced me to use MetaTrader which, for my style of analysis, is not at all suitable. Add to that I don’t store my wave counts in MetaTrader so it meant I had to work from memory. To cap the problems the gaps on open have raised a whole level of uncertainty and the cap on the cap is that prices from 2 different brokers are divergent in their levels of the Dollar lows this morning… I am therefore not particularly confident of the support & resistance levels today to please take care.

If I can point to one factor I feel important it is the decline in USDCHF from 1.0897 down to 1.0434 did seem a complete correction which implies a new high above 1.0897. However, this push higher this morning in EURUSD above 1.3590 is not particularly encouraging but only a break above the 1.3814 high would really break the entire downtrend as the daily bullish divergence in this would be confirmed and would then force the Euro higher again…

I’ll add one more reason I still err towards the Dollar bullish side. While GBPUSD has pushed above the 1.5376 high, and this does confirm a reversal higher here, it has hit an important resistance area around the 1.5465-84 area – though there is also a higher target at 1.5534 & max 1.5581 to keep in minds also. While I do feel this will now go a lot higher it does first need a pullback lower…

USDJPY did not take off has strongly as I had hoped also. In some ways I am caught between the bearish super-cycle that is due to maintain overall losses through H2 2012 and the depth of the pullback. It seems as if it has risen too far to not reach 101.43 again… but is struggling to push higher. As long as the 92.82 low can hold.

The JPY crosses seem to have a little more on the upside but possibly not that strong…

AUDUSD seems to have a barrier at last November’s 0.9404 high. USDCAD appears to be in a sideways consolidation…

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on along with Friday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+40 pips).

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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