Thursday, April 29, 2010

Dollar gains developed as expected except for the final high – caution recommended

Particularly in EURUSD and USDCHF the Dollar development was pretty close to perfection. However, the final highs were not as deep as they should have been… I could accept this if the highs had correct projection ratios but they did not and this opens up a few alternatives and we’re going to have to take care until the picture clears itself up.

I basically still have the preference for seeing the stated targets – at 1.3087 EURUSD and 1.0953 USDCHF. However, how they get there is the bigger question. If we just see these both follow-through directly it would be the tidiest of results. The problem is that we could go back and test the 1.3265 EURUSD corrective high and the 1.0814 corrective low and then whip through to target.

Once these levels are attained then we can see the next larger correction develop. So the underlying implication is – even if we see another high it’s unlikely to be sustainable…

Now, GBPUSD… bad boy… The decline here has upset the apple cart… It hasn’t breach the 1.5140 corrective low by too much so maybe we can be bullish but without the support of the other Europeans it’ll be a tough ask. I’m more inclined to expect to see it lower… watch this carefully.

USDJPY… Rallied nicely & looking good. The low just seen as I write at 93.86 looks important but there’s no great sign from the short term that a reversal is due… perhaps it can slip just a bit more but overall I feel we should be making upward progress here. This should keep the JPY crosses from declining too far. They look a bit short-term range bound which, as long as the respective moves in the Europeans and here do as I’d prefer then consolidation is a strong possibility.

AUDUSD recovered strongly but I’m not convinced we’re out of the correction yet. USDCHF failed to extend its gains – must do so soon otherwise we could be in a large messy sideways consolidation.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+185 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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