Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Delayed by a day but basically today should see a bottom in the Dollar for stronger gains

The market gave nothing away yesterday, seemingly totally confused by this deep pullback in the Dollar. It seems I was looking a bit too early for the final dips to the support levels I’ve been suggesting since Friday but today looks like a better bet. Already this morning we have seen the Dollar ease lower to an intermediate support level that should see a correction that should turn into the final dips by the European morning session.

GBPUSD managed the stronger move higher but this is beginning to fade too. I still retain the target I provided yesterday and likewise the downside is going to become vulnerable for the rest of the week, possibly into early next week.

Thus, tonight should see the Dollar upside develop more strongly again.

This should keep any gains in the JPY crosses in check, probably the strongest likely to be GBPJPY that should top out just above 147.00. Quite how the other two perform is clearly up to USDJPY. While I am bullish in the medium term, unless this morning’s 93.80 low holds, the downside is looking a little vulnerable – not aggressively – but should keep a lid on EURJPY and AUDJPY. These two have a little more uncertainty about them.

Certainly AUDJPY looks more bearish – it’s only hope of making a new high is if it can remain above 86.84-88 it seems. That will also require AUDUSD to remain above yesterday’s 0.9255 low. If it can then a break higher to 0.9350-76 can occur… if not then it should be consigned to a few more days of weakness within a sideways trading range…

Finally, USDCAD… only mild downward progress made that does give me some concern but until the 1.0022 corrective high breaks I retain a more bearish stance for the favored 0.9830 target.

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+10 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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