Friday, April 30, 2010

Betwixt and between… though in general I cautiously see the Dollar firmer today

Yesterday was sort of close to alternate expectations but the lack of thrust in either direction is making life tough in establishing what is going on… This lack of thrust is causing momentum to lack any strong indication as to whether we’ve seen a high at the 1.3278 peak in EURUSD or not…

First of all, I do still see the downside as the major threat. The failure to reach the 1.3086 EURUSD and 1.0953 USDCHF targets is rather annoying as they were indicated from 3 areas of the wave structure. To complicate matters the corrections we have seen to 1.3274 and 1.0806 are actually within the limits set for a final move to the targets mentioned above…

I’m therefore more in the mind of expecting these moves to now occur… While yesterday’s Dollar lows remain intact this is my preferred view. Once that happens we should see a more sizeable correction but which should find it hard to extend much beyond yesterday’s Dollar corrective lows – if indeed it manages that at all… However, the risk does seem to be for a more lengthy correction which could last through to Monday or Tuesday. Any break through yesterday’s Dollar corrective lows would mean follow-through but I don’t think it’ll be by too much.

GBPUSD bounced back much more strongly than expected but I feel it has found its first high and should tumble along with EURUSD. I don’t expect a new low however.

USDJPY went to sleep – well, it’s Golden Week holiday time. Everyone’s up and about this morning but Monday & Tuesday are holidays again. That gives a brief window today for another leg higher but we can’t see any break below 83.85 else the correction will recycle. This should mean that there may be further upside risk in the JPY crosses – and certainly that’s what I favor but then it all depends on when the Dollar makes its moves here versus against the Europeans… There could be a degree of consolidation at some point.

AUDUSD – if it breaks above 0.9311 then look for 0.9366-71 else it’ll take another trip to the downside and back into range. USDCAD seems to be in one of its famous sideways consolidations but probably can do with one more dip before reversing higher…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+90 pips).

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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