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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Friday, April 30, 2010

Betwixt and between… though in general I cautiously see the Dollar firmer today

Yesterday was sort of close to alternate expectations but the lack of thrust in either direction is making life tough in establishing what is going on… This lack of thrust is causing momentum to lack any strong indication as to whether we’ve seen a high at the 1.3278 peak in EURUSD or not…

First of all, I do still see the downside as the major threat. The failure to reach the 1.3086 EURUSD and 1.0953 USDCHF targets is rather annoying as they were indicated from 3 areas of the wave structure. To complicate matters the corrections we have seen to 1.3274 and 1.0806 are actually within the limits set for a final move to the targets mentioned above…

I’m therefore more in the mind of expecting these moves to now occur… While yesterday’s Dollar lows remain intact this is my preferred view. Once that happens we should see a more sizeable correction but which should find it hard to extend much beyond yesterday’s Dollar corrective lows – if indeed it manages that at all… However, the risk does seem to be for a more lengthy correction which could last through to Monday or Tuesday. Any break through yesterday’s Dollar corrective lows would mean follow-through but I don’t think it’ll be by too much.

GBPUSD bounced back much more strongly than expected but I feel it has found its first high and should tumble along with EURUSD. I don’t expect a new low however.

USDJPY went to sleep – well, it’s Golden Week holiday time. Everyone’s up and about this morning but Monday & Tuesday are holidays again. That gives a brief window today for another leg higher but we can’t see any break below 83.85 else the correction will recycle. This should mean that there may be further upside risk in the JPY crosses – and certainly that’s what I favor but then it all depends on when the Dollar makes its moves here versus against the Europeans… There could be a degree of consolidation at some point.

AUDUSD – if it breaks above 0.9311 then look for 0.9366-71 else it’ll take another trip to the downside and back into range. USDCAD seems to be in one of its famous sideways consolidations but probably can do with one more dip before reversing higher…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+90 pips).

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Dollar gains developed as expected except for the final high – caution recommended

Particularly in EURUSD and USDCHF the Dollar development was pretty close to perfection. However, the final highs were not as deep as they should have been… I could accept this if the highs had correct projection ratios but they did not and this opens up a few alternatives and we’re going to have to take care until the picture clears itself up.

I basically still have the preference for seeing the stated targets – at 1.3087 EURUSD and 1.0953 USDCHF. However, how they get there is the bigger question. If we just see these both follow-through directly it would be the tidiest of results. The problem is that we could go back and test the 1.3265 EURUSD corrective high and the 1.0814 corrective low and then whip through to target.

Once these levels are attained then we can see the next larger correction develop. So the underlying implication is – even if we see another high it’s unlikely to be sustainable…

Now, GBPUSD… bad boy… The decline here has upset the apple cart… It hasn’t breach the 1.5140 corrective low by too much so maybe we can be bullish but without the support of the other Europeans it’ll be a tough ask. I’m more inclined to expect to see it lower… watch this carefully.

USDJPY… Rallied nicely & looking good. The low just seen as I write at 93.86 looks important but there’s no great sign from the short term that a reversal is due… perhaps it can slip just a bit more but overall I feel we should be making upward progress here. This should keep the JPY crosses from declining too far. They look a bit short-term range bound which, as long as the respective moves in the Europeans and here do as I’d prefer then consolidation is a strong possibility.

AUDUSD recovered strongly but I’m not convinced we’re out of the correction yet. USDCHF failed to extend its gains – must do so soon otherwise we could be in a large messy sideways consolidation.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+185 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

We should see further Dollar highs but less aggressively today

Well, in the end the market didn’t quite make it to my full retracement levels and the Dollar resumed its rally both directly and aggressively. It has made good progress towards its next intermediate targets which should be seen by late today of perhaps tomorrow. From that point we should see a correction that may well last over the weekend. However, next week should extend those gains further to the higher targets by the second half of the week.

This is going to prove to be an interesting moment as very clearly the technical picture and structure I am looking at flies in the face of the turmoil surrounding the European community. It will be a “do-or-die” moment when it comes. However, at this point everything is coming together with the structure I am following and is the culmination of the entire decline from the 1.5143 high EURUSD and the 0.9909 low USDCHF. As we approach those targets we shall need to watch momentum to ensure that it has deepened the daily & weekly divergences… However, that is still a week away and time will tell.

Over today I see the current correction from the 1.3145 low EURUSD and 1.0898 high USDCHF deepening further but by probably the second half look for the additional follow-through. That looks pretty similar in GBPUSD and should face a test of the 1.5141-1.5192 key support area. This area is vital for the Pound’s bullish structure. Thus watch this carefully.

Elsewhere USDJPY fell back into the 92.74-97 support area. I think this will hold to generate further gains. Thus the downside in the JPY crosses should be limited though probably we’ll see a little more but like the Europeans they shouldn’t be as aggressive as yesterday.

The Aussie joined in the decline and likewise the downside should be more limited and we’ll have to wait for next week. USDCAD broke the key resistance and flew higher. If anything is going to fly it’ll be this I feel…

So overall the day should be less dramatic than yesterday but look to buy into Dollar dips – I’ll outline the key Dollar supports in the individual analyses.

Today’s free analysis is for AUDJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+20 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Delayed by a day but basically today should see a bottom in the Dollar for stronger gains

The market gave nothing away yesterday, seemingly totally confused by this deep pullback in the Dollar. It seems I was looking a bit too early for the final dips to the support levels I’ve been suggesting since Friday but today looks like a better bet. Already this morning we have seen the Dollar ease lower to an intermediate support level that should see a correction that should turn into the final dips by the European morning session.

GBPUSD managed the stronger move higher but this is beginning to fade too. I still retain the target I provided yesterday and likewise the downside is going to become vulnerable for the rest of the week, possibly into early next week.

Thus, tonight should see the Dollar upside develop more strongly again.

This should keep any gains in the JPY crosses in check, probably the strongest likely to be GBPJPY that should top out just above 147.00. Quite how the other two perform is clearly up to USDJPY. While I am bullish in the medium term, unless this morning’s 93.80 low holds, the downside is looking a little vulnerable – not aggressively – but should keep a lid on EURJPY and AUDJPY. These two have a little more uncertainty about them.

Certainly AUDJPY looks more bearish – it’s only hope of making a new high is if it can remain above 86.84-88 it seems. That will also require AUDUSD to remain above yesterday’s 0.9255 low. If it can then a break higher to 0.9350-76 can occur… if not then it should be consigned to a few more days of weakness within a sideways trading range…

Finally, USDCAD… only mild downward progress made that does give me some concern but until the 1.0022 corrective high breaks I retain a more bearish stance for the favored 0.9830 target.

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+10 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Monday, April 26, 2010

The deep pullbacks in EURUSD & USDCHF encourage but should see Dollar gains resume

I’m quite happy with the deep corrections in EURUSD and USDCHF – but rather unsettled that they didn’t drag GBPUSD with them. USDJPY also made stronger gains than expected and in the larger picture this still looks bullish. I’m not convinced all of the 4 majors will perform in the same way from this point with the biggest question mark over GBPUSD for which I have been carrying a bullish view. The overall Dollar strength expected does put this under great scrutiny.

First EURUSD and USDCHF should still see minor follow-through from Friday. However, I don’t expect a dramatic extension and by the end of the day I feel we’ll begin to see the Dollar begin to impose its muscle and begin rallying again. As mentioned on Friday I still see these moving to 1.2806 EURUSD and 1.1021-67 USDCHF over the next 2-3 weeks.

GBPUSD… It shunned the opportunity to prove itself and does raise a lot of question and alternatives. Of the most extreme it could even follow its European compatriots by yielding to Dollar strength and this will imply new lows… I find it exceptionally difficult to imagine EURUSD dropping by 600 points while GBPUSD remains above the 1.5141 corrective low. If there is any chance then today it has to retest the 1.5523 highs to then recycle the correction back to 1.5141-91… We’ll have to keep an eye on this carefully.

USDJPY… Hmmm… It obviously rallied above my target but stalled at an alternative extended projection. I could see a scenario in which it sees a pullback to around the 92.95 before rallying. However, I can’t say that momentum provided any particularly strong reversal signal. I’m therefore open-minded to the next move but if this does rally today also then the next target appears to be at 95.60. Given the JPY crosses have begun the week on a firm note it could encourage USDJPY higher too…

AUDUSD seems range bound but still has some upside to go within this. USDCAD did well by capping at the high end of the 1.0046-66 resistance range – ideally this should see one last leg lower to below 0.9900 before recovering…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with Friday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+100 pips).

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Friday, April 23, 2010

I could try and make a directional statement but this morning’s moves urge caution

All seemed quite well yesterday, the Dollar arriving at the key Dollar resistances with bearish divergences and then slam, dunk crash… It would be an understatement to mention that this changes the medium term greatly, but obviously it has. In some ways I am more comfortable with this decline as it suits the daily structure more. The problem is trying to work out what happens next and making judgments in the limited time I have had is rather difficult.

Maybe I should start with the type of targets I expect in the longer term – and I imagine this probably means around 2-3 weeks. My favored are at 1.2806 EURUSD and between 1.1021-67 USDCHF. Now the bigger issue is working out quite how the Dollar will move to these targets. I even have one (perhaps rather perverse) alternative that calls for a very deep pullback from this morning’s Dollar highs…

The problem I have in my mind is GBPUSD. This has hardly budged while its European neighbors have made their moves. In fact, while 1.5311-17 supports I could even get very bullish… However, before I get too carried away with this scenario I’d like to see how GBPUSD now reacts. If it begins to rally strongly and drags the other two higher I’ll settle on this idea.

However, until it does all I can do is point out what I feel are the next Dollar resistance levels with those distant targets really pointing the way.

What’s more, GBPJPY has held support that could provide it with a lift as well… I have a certain ambivalence over the other JPY crosses for which I can see alternative scenarios with different patterns that would work. As for USDJPY… well that seems to be on its way to the 93.84 target and should correct lower so being too bullish for the crosses doesn’t seem to be something I’d want to bet upon…

Thus today is going to be a day to work with breaks and to be aware as much as possible of the key support & resistance levels. If strong directional moves reemerge then it may be possible to jump onboard. However, if not I feel the currencies to focus on are USDJPY, GBPUSD and probably USDCAD which should find resistance at 1.0046-66 before declining again…

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+165 pips).

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Thursday, April 22, 2010

USDJPY should rally while the Dollar new highs against the EUR & CHF may prove unsustainable

Range trading it was for the most part yesterday and today should start in a similar fashion but I feel there’s a good chance of seen stronger directional moves later in the day.

Covering USDJPY first, the 92.64 level appears to be the key pivotal area. I favor it holding for another new high but not too much above what we’ve seen already. The top of the congestion area around 93.72-84 seems unlikely to be penetrated. Once it gets to that sort of area it is due for a deeper retracement.

This is pretty much in line with what appears to be happening in the Europeans. EURUSD reached the top end of the target range but USDCHF didn’t quite make the low end. It’s a bit touch and go but I feel there’s an odds on chance we could see those targets achieved today. However, once seen we should see the Dollar reverse lower to extend the sideways trading range.

As for poor old GBPUSD... well, after its gallant attempt to push higher it really came to a sticky end yesterday. To be honest it hasn’t broken a bullish structure but if it going to stand any chance of reaching the 1.59-1.61 area then it needs to put on its running shoes pretty quickly. The 1.5474 area seems to be important here and unless that breaks cleanly we could see a pullback into range and possibly a recycling of the entire correction from 1.5192… If not then the rally could be quite solid.

The Aussie’s strength seems to have faced and while this could launch an attempt higher, unless it can rally back above 0.9300-10 it looks like drifting lower again… This could impact on the AUDJPY cross which should continue some choppy sideways moves. GBPJPY and EURJPY certainly appear to have more chance of solid rallies if the EURUSD and GBPUSD can engineer some strength – that really is going to be more a factor of what moves first given USDJPY is expected to decline after an initial rally…

USDCAD… Still bearish but not too far from a solid low – still targeting 0.9830…

Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+110 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

I get the impression that we’re going to see some messy range trading

Yesterday saw many of the directional calls being correct but what surprised in some cases was the extent of the moves without too much of a correction. That may seem quite positive but I didn’t quite find it so. In the context of the larger picture, for the moves I had anticipated yesterday to develop in support of the entire picture required some deeper corrections. In many cases I was seeing mostly what appear to be corrective structures which do not necessarily require deeper retracements.

It has swung me back to a more cautious approach and this does appear to be more of a trading range approach. The most difficult thing about this type of structure is the relative erratic and uncertain nature of the internal structures. Therefore, if we begin to see a deeper pullback to yesterday’s moves I’d recommend taking a lot of care and to take profits timely.

If I have any broad brush stroke observations then I do still see the additional follow-through in EURUSD and USDCHF which I had anticipated yesterday. While the slightly deeper pullbacks in these two pairs was a bit frustrating it does tend to lend to the idea that we’re going to see this type of trading continue.

While GBPUSD and USDJPY also rallied well I am reluctant to get too overly bullish at this stage. Certainly GBPUSD requires a correction and this could still retain a bullish structure. However, the JPY crosses seem correlated from the point of view these too appear to require a reversal lower within the larger range. AUDUSD is the same.

If there is any currency pair I feel could provoke new extremes it is USDCAD. My very bullish view was swept away with that drop and while today should see a pullback this does seem destined for the original targets I had been suggesting 7-10 days ago… probably around 0.9830-65… However, wait for the pullback higher first…

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+0 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

USDJPY and GBPUSD appear to have completed their corrections – but not EURUSD and USDCHF…

Yesterday was pretty close to expectations and I feel the picture is beginning to clear but with perhaps a little conflict across the board in terms of whether we have seen completed corrections. USDJPY and GBPUSD appear to have done so... I favor EURUSD and USDCHF seeing extension of yesterday’s moves.

It’s not too much of a conflict as both USDJPY and GBPUSD are due corrections to the recoveries they made. Therefore today is probably more about synchronizing the pullbacks in these two against the extensions in the European buddies. In the larger picture there is a more interesting deviance in that there seems more risk of resumptions in the rallies in USDJPY and GBPUSD… which puts a lot of emphasis on GBPJPY of course… However, it seems more likely that EURUSD and USDCHF will remain in a sideways trading range, probably for most of this week.

AUDUSD also should have completed its downside yesterday and this should not be pushing higher too which places a strong chance of a robust rally in AUDJPY also. In contrast I feel that EURJPY needs to see a new low which implies at some point USDJPY and EURUSD must start moving lower in tandem but could leave AUDUSD and GBPUSD behind.

I should also not that from what I feel is occurring in GBPUSD there is some implication that we’ll see another strong rally over this week. Now, quite where this ends has some ambiguity attached to it. If I have any preference I’d say 1.5930 at least… However, before reaching there we should pay respect at the levels I was mentioning last week at 1.5581 and 1.5665.

Finally, I got USDCAD completely wrong but in the larger picture I feel we have quite a way to go on the upside. Today should be limited to 1.0275-00 to generate a pullback before the next larger push higher.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+195 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Monday, April 19, 2010

There still seems room for extensions of all Friday’s moves

There were a few warning on Friday about recycling of corrections. Not only has this been for the closer retracements lows but a much larger recycling especially in the JPY crosses with USDJPY breaking below 92.56… What next? Well, a bit more of the same I think though today should first see corrections in most currency pairs.

Starting with USDJPY … The loss of 92.56 forces me to look at a different structure in the rally from 88.13. The big problem all the time here has been the sharp moves early on in the rally. I see weaknesses in both bullish & bearish structures but at the moment the ball is still in the bullish court and I’ll cautiously remain with that until proven otherwise. However, this does still have a little further to go – probably just below 91.00 before any recovery can be made.

The Europeans… in EURUSD and USDCHF I have had to consider a correlated approach and this tends to argue for a deeper correction higher in the Dollar for now. I feel that perhaps we’re seeing a larger sideways consolidation, probably in a triangle and therefore expect the extensions in these two pairs to be more aggressive than that in GBPUSD. The Pound has a more bullish overall feel I think and while there are still new corrective lows to come I feel these will be limited compared to the other two…

This impacts on EURJPY more – I was rather surprised but this seems to suggest a retest of the 119.64-77 area again… That seems a bit aggressive so take care. However, in GBPJPY this may translate into losses down to around 139.60-80… Even AUDJPY looks like it has a little more to go but probably not much below 84.00…

While AUDUSD has reached the target I set at 0.9204 it doesn’t yet look complete so expect the 0.9235-60 area to cap. Even USDCAD was outstanding in its rally – much stronger than I had anticipated and should therefore extend back close to the 1.0301 high after finishing a small correction lower…

So overall, for today I feel we look to sell into corrections all round but in the extensions there should be opportunities to enter for the resumption of trends – except perhaps for EURUSD & USDCHF which may well remain within the larger range for a few more days.

Today’s free analysis is for AUDJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with Friday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+185 pips).

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Friday, April 16, 2010

The underlying expectations remain the same but lack of follow-through yesterday opens risk of a messy day

Just as I thought we’d see some decent movement we saw corrections recycling which seem to require just a little more time to complete before the Dollar can extend its losses. It does seem to imply that we’re going to see some short term consolidation, probably some unpleasant choppiness before this all sorts itself out.

The two pairs I had identified yesterday as having greatest potential (USDJPY and GBPUSD) failed miserably the former falling back into one of those whippy triangle-like patterns while GBPUSD, poised with its key to unlock further gains, promptly put it back in its pocket and succumbed to a corrective decline.

Now, on GBPUSD specifically the sharp recovery tends to argue against any drop below yesterday’s low but the way it has pulled back this morning tends to suggest a short term triangle probably lasting for much of today. Even USDJPY looks to have just a little more consolidation left in it, maybe a minor new low below 92.82 but not below 92.56… Once seen the upside can develop. However, take care as a break below 92.56 would risk further losses…

For EURUSD and USDCHF… Well, there’s probably a little more downside left in the former with the 1.3479-89 area the target while the latter has probably seen its high and should remain in a consolidation waiting for EURUSD to finish its decline before the Dollar begins to weaken again…

For AUDUSD I’d like to see this remain above 0.9310 else it could perform a recycling itself – the 0.9204 area then begin the target. USDCAD is exactly the same. A much deeper rally than expected that threatens to move back to the 1.0102-11 area before coming back lower again…

Messy, messy… take care…

Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+190 pips).

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey


FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Potential is there for USDJPY to carry through higher but requires a direct rally soon

There are a few areas to watch for today. Firstly, while USDJPY didn’t really get too far yesterday there remains a prospect if it can forge higher early on today for quite a decent follow-through. It would be worth waiting for that confirmation by a break above yesterday’s high to reach the 94.77 high and probably a little further before a pullback. Indeed, that may even be enough for today but the underlying implication would be for sturdy gains thereafter.

Once of the supporting factors for this rally must also come from the JPY crosses. They are poised and ready for another move higher but we just have to watch for the risk that they could stumble at the last moment and drift back lower into the past day or two’s range. However, as long as we get the right signals from USDJPY then the prospect remains.

The second interesting pair is GBPUSD. It made a new high yesterday and has even topped that this morning. I have had a target of 1.5581 and it still is an important level but, while I feel nervous about making the call, the way this appears to be setting itself up does have a minor chance of even extending as far as 1.5665. It really does depend on whether it drives higher directly or makes a meal out of the rally… However, be aware of the risk.

Now, onto the other two Europeans. They’re struggling a bit aren’t they? There is a chance we could see yesterday’s correction recycle but I do feel at some point we should see follow-through lower in the Dollar. However, I doubt it will break the 1.3814 EURUSD high – or if it does then not by too much. Probably the stronger signal and target is in USDCHF which has potential to break below the 1.0434 low with 1.0370-75 a possible target. Thus match EURUSD with this sort of area.

Finally, AUDUSD still looks firm and is odds-on to break above the 0.9404 high. However, don’t expect it to last for long as a pullback will be due from just above. USDCAD has broken lower and may still see some consolidation but the underlying direction remains lower.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+40 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Yesterday’s limited moves don’t provide many clues but the Dollar does seem to be edging towards the bearish side…

The market appears to be confused, unable to capitalize on the Dollar weakness but the corrections seen yesterday didn’t get close to testing key resistance levels. It does keep the bias towards further weakness but I remain with the view that any follow-through is unlikely to be that strong and a larger correction will be due.

Still, I cannot rule out at this stage the possibility of the correction higher continuing. The 1.3640 EURUSD peak reached this morning does seem important and in USDCHF there is an equivalent level around 1.0505-15. If these do manage to hold it will favor extension of the larger correction.

Even in GBPUSD the movement seen so far doesn’t really shout out that it wants to extend its gains. There appears to be more risk of consolidation than a stronger directional move. All this does seem to be reflected in the JPY crosses (with the exception of AUDJPY) where we still seemed to be locked in potential triangles. The conclusion can only be that we’re still going to have to suffer another messy day…

Indeed, if there is any stronger chance of a directional move I feel this is in AUDUSD and AUDJPY, both of which appear to be turning back higher and looking to test higher altitudes. Probably the first rally will be limited to around 0.9309-15 but after that I can see a move to above the 0.9404 high – by a small amount at least. This should drag AUDJPY higher and how that performs probably depends just as much on USDJPY. I’d like to believe it has done enough in the correction and that the next leg higher is to occur. A move above the 93.59-77 peaks would open the doors for further gains and if seen AUDJPY could well be a decent winner.

The only other thing to mention in USDCAD. The sideways consolidation became a little more complicated with the dip and rally but if it can penetrate yesterday’s lows the downside should develop well…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+100 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

USDJPY concerns slightly – EURUSD looks to make a new high before correcting lower…

After the difficulties in generating the analysis yesterday it wasn’t too adrift from what actually occurred. I’ll cover the Europeans first as these seem to be behaving themselves moderately well. I had a good look through the structures this morning and the thing that gets caught in my mind the most is the conflict between EURUSD and GBPUSD.

I am certain that the latter has reversed its downtrend but also maintain that it’s not going to fly away higher just yet. If I am to retain a bearish EURUSD view there is a considerable difference between a drop from current levels at 1.3580 to below 1.2900 and a pullback of maybe 400 points in GBPUSD. Well, perhaps it is possible but if that’s the case then we’ll need EURUSD to head directly lower from here and not make any new highs… That will be the key pointer for today.

Having looked at USDCHF again I can actually see potential for the entire correction from the initial 1.0506 low having come in one of those special Elliott Wave corrections in which a new low is made. It’s definitely a possibility that cannot be ignored but the structure of the decline from 1.0897 doesn’t hold any clear signs of being correct to extend losses. Well, I’ll keep an open mind – but this does too target further gains and would not allow a new low below 1.0434…

Now, USDJPY has concerned with its deep retracement this morning. It hasn’t quite yet broken below 92.82 so it could be just that – a deep retracement. The upside is still basically favored but we’re close to a break level and should be observed. If I attempt to retrieve any clues from the JPY crosses then they actually look a little on the soft side but probably only within a sideways consolidation and assuming I’m correct should recover again and we’ll need to see what drives this…

AUDUSD appears to have a little further to fall back also but there’s no change to the underlying uptrend. USDCAD is still locked in a triangle but is in the final stages and should trigger break later today maybe…

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+90 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Monday, April 12, 2010

The Dollar’s gap lower on open raises doubts and prompts caution

The first thing I should state today is that the conditions under which I have had to perform the analysis have been less than ideal with my usual charting software having initial technical difficulties which forced me to use MetaTrader which, for my style of analysis, is not at all suitable. Add to that I don’t store my wave counts in MetaTrader so it meant I had to work from memory. To cap the problems the gaps on open have raised a whole level of uncertainty and the cap on the cap is that prices from 2 different brokers are divergent in their levels of the Dollar lows this morning… I am therefore not particularly confident of the support & resistance levels today to please take care.

If I can point to one factor I feel important it is the decline in USDCHF from 1.0897 down to 1.0434 did seem a complete correction which implies a new high above 1.0897. However, this push higher this morning in EURUSD above 1.3590 is not particularly encouraging but only a break above the 1.3814 high would really break the entire downtrend as the daily bullish divergence in this would be confirmed and would then force the Euro higher again…

I’ll add one more reason I still err towards the Dollar bullish side. While GBPUSD has pushed above the 1.5376 high, and this does confirm a reversal higher here, it has hit an important resistance area around the 1.5465-84 area – though there is also a higher target at 1.5534 & max 1.5581 to keep in minds also. While I do feel this will now go a lot higher it does first need a pullback lower…

USDJPY did not take off has strongly as I had hoped also. In some ways I am caught between the bearish super-cycle that is due to maintain overall losses through H2 2012 and the depth of the pullback. It seems as if it has risen too far to not reach 101.43 again… but is struggling to push higher. As long as the 92.82 low can hold.

The JPY crosses seem to have a little more on the upside but possibly not that strong…

AUDUSD seems to have a barrier at last November’s 0.9404 high. USDCAD appears to be in a sideways consolidation…

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with Friday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+40 pips).

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Friday, April 9, 2010

USDJPY still looks strong – while the situation in the Europeans sits between two stones…

I’ll start with USDJPY again as this performed very close to expectations and reached its support. The only issue we have to watch closely here is whether it resumes its rally or falls into a sideways consolidation due to the nature of the pullback to 92.82. I suspect given the length of the correction that the more direct resumption of gains probably holds the sway but we should just be aware of the alternative. However, it should still mean that we see further gains today and from this I can hopefully identify which scenario will develop.

Now, the Europeans… I’m finding this is falling between two stones. First of all I feel USDCHF should ideally see further gains and quite possibly to the 1.0840-44 area. Clearly this would imply losses in EURUSD but we’re pretty close to a break level higher so the 1.3389 resistance is key. If this can cap while USDCHF can remain above 1.0692-13 then I actually prefer the scenario calling for the follow-through. It may cause minor new lows in EURUSD but at this point I don’t think it is going to be sustained.

Over in GBPUSD it has literally reached the resistance I had identified as critical – 1.5303… If it gets above here then we shall probably see a move above the 1.5317 high to attack the 1.5376 major swing high. If this breaks then the larger downtrend is at risk of reversing. I really don’t favor that so we’ll have to observe the key supports that will confirm its expected demise…

In the JPY crosses I had mixed success but overall I am quite bullish here, mainly through the USDJPY view. Of course, given the slight possibility of USDJPY entering a consolidation we have to take care but in particular I can see further highs in GBPJPY – note the comments in GBPUSD – and in EURJPY I feel a correction higher is due. AUDJPY… yes higher but this suffers from the same uncertainty as USDJPY but equally while I am bullish AUDUSD there does appear to be risk of the gains being a little choppy from here. So overall there are a few complications with the variations that can develop in the individual currency pairs versus the crosses so we’re going to need to watch these altogether as a group.

USDCAD… Weird… I’m beginning to tentatively feel we’ve seen the low here much higher than I had anticipated. We’ll have to watch today but if there are further gains then my confidence in this scenario will grow…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday'sTrader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+95 pips).

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Thursday, April 8, 2010

We have a little more Dollar strength to go but I doubt we’ll see excessive gains

Back from he break I am not too surprised overall with the movements seen except perhaps USDJPY. Starting with that first, I have to say that the strength seen does not look over… It was not my favored scenario at all but I would not be too surprised to see 101.43 within the larger rally… Having said that, while there is room for additional gains now I feel these will be limited for to around (maybe as high as) 97.17-47. This should keep the JPY crosses buoyant and I can’t see that we’ve reached their peaks yet…

Coming back to the Europeans I was delighted with the reaction in both EURUSD and USDCHF. It does keep the larger picture Dollar bullish. However, I’m not totally convinced that the strength will be direct. In particular the recovery in EURUSD developed in a manner that could see a recycling of the correction at some point while the rally in USDCHF does seem to have a barrier around 1.0795-00 and then 1.0871. We’ll have to watch those carefully.

As for GBPUSD, the announcement of the General Election obviously adds a degree of political uncertainty. I’m not sure why since neither candidate seems particularly capable! In the larger picture I still prefer one more decline and in line with the EURUSD time frame of the end of this month, this does seem to apply to GBPUSD also. It is just the short term that could provide some headaches. The break level will be a move above the 1.5376 high by any strong degree…

I’m a bit mixed on AUDUSD and USDCAD. Perhaps some short term caution advised…

Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with April’s 1st’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+65 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Dollar weakness seen but I don’t see this reaching too much further now

Please note that the next report will be for trading on Thursday 8th April


The bounce in EURUSD from 1.3384 had me thinking the larger consolidation would be correct… Clearly the market had other ideas. The drop in USDCHF actually provides a strong clue as the target for the downward correction is at 1.0423-48 and that looks to be on target. Thus, having to once again re-arrange myself for the rally in EURUSD it should see a little higher today but that should also soon find it’s high.

Now, the 1.0423-48 USDCHF target will imply that we should again see Dollar strength and equally this will apply to EURUSD. However, I’m not totally sure that this will be a direct resumption of the Dollar uptrend but a rather shaky one at first. Given the different places in wave structure between the two I am more in favor of a rather long lasting consolidation but clearly from today with a Dollar bullish bias. Certainly, when I return to my desk next week I am expecting to see the Dollar higher but not to have broken 1.0750 USDCHF or 1.3267 EURUSD…

USDJPY… basically moved in line with expectations but the intermediate high overshot by 10 pips and the pullback from there just below the 92.95-83.05 area. It appears to have been a deep final pullback before the final leg higher which retains the same target.

Clearly, the combination of both EURUSD and USDJPY making highs (and GBPUSD can be included) has a greater impact on the JPY crosses. Therefore the bigger bang for a position should come from the crosses. However, the problem will be identifying the stalling levels as the structure in these is horrendously complicated right now. If the market is nice to us perhaps the respective highs occur at the same time …

Therefore, over the next few days, while tomorrow and Monday being fairly widespread holidays the movement may be more limited, by Tuesday and Wednesday there seems to be risk of a resumption in Dollar gains but expect life to be a bit choppy…

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+90 pips).

Have a great Easter break
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users