I shall keep this brief as I’m running a bit late today…
Dollar-Europe: Not too far from expectations but did need a little adjustment as the expected pullbacks in EURUSD and USDCHF were a little uncorrelated. However, USDCHF was pretty close to the warning that we could see a minor new high before falling back. I feel EURUSD has done something similar and thus we should see the correction recycle to yesterday’s Dollar lows – maybe just a touch below – before the uptrend resumes.
The only issue I have which causes me some alarm is the excessive projections now occurring in EURUSD. I shall need to watch this carefully as conservatively we’re talking 1.3080 and extreme 1.2949…
What did screw up my day yesterday was USDJPY. I’m finding this just a little tough as the implications do seem to be quite bullish. For the moment I am concentrating on the shorter-term moves and this still seems to have another peak to come – probably around the 93.96-94.10 area.
Thus we have a bit of balancing to do with the crosses as how far they can rally – if at all – depends on how correlated the Dollar rallies are. The last couple of days have seen an almost uncharacteristic correlation which means we shouldn’t see the crosses too much higher – except perhaps AUDUSD. Here AUDUSD looks like recycling the correction also and may well cause some quite solid follow-through on the cross – watch out for this one…
Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+115 pips).
Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey
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