Tuesday, March 30, 2010

The right sort of retracement levels held so the Dollar upside should be implied

Please note that the report will take the Easter break from Friday 2nd April to Wednesday 7th April

Well, we seemed to have seen the general expectations in EURUSD and USDCHF – a pullback that has not broken above 1.3517 EURUSD or below yesterday’s 1.0577 low in USDCHF. These remain the critical break level.

Overall, looking at the wave structure I am quite content with what we’ve seen and does appear to set up a final push higher in the Dollar. This should take a day or two – I doubt much more – but once the targets have been reached we could well be in line for a more sustainable pullback lower in the Dollar. This could take possibly a week, or perhaps a little more but bare in mind the weekly bearish flag in EURUSD that has a time target around the end of next month.

If I am to add any caveat to the outlook for today then it is that momentum in hourly EURUSD was a bit firm towards yesterday’s highs. I feel that the 1.3505 high probably provided the high – the ratios working quite well for the recovery from 1.3418. So just in case allow for 1.3517 that may provide a bearish divergence … or if it breaks on firm momentum then something has gone amiss and the correction is already starting.

USDJPY… back to it’s dormant self yesterday… Losses have been seen this morning and at first I though we’d seen a triangle breaking down but the subsequent movement seems to have denied this so we have to remain cautious until the 91.75 low is broken. Until then we could just be seeing a deep pullback and so far today’s low would still work well with the 93.86-94.10 target area. Work with breaks there…

The Aussie was much stronger than I had expected yesterday – just a bit mixed there as momentum has dropped off so only look for a return to 0.9248 if the 0.9195 high breaks. Otherwise we can see this drop back in a deeper correction.

Finally, USDCAD dropped off deeper than expected but until that break below yesterday’s low there’s still a half chance of seeing a final push higher in this correction before the next leg lower…

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+40 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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