Wednesday, March 24, 2010

I suspect this will be another range trading day overall but to set up Dollar gains

Please note that the report will take the Easter break from Friday 2nd April to Wednesday 7th April

Yesterday’s price action was more reflective of corrective price action and it doesn’t look complete. The message all round appears to be the same, GBPUSD & USDCHF apparently trapped in ranges, and the JPY crosses seeming to be in a languid mood.

EURUSD has fallen to new lows in this current decline and may well extend a little further, but unless it breaks below 1.4225-42 I’ll be a bit reticent to call this a resumption of Dollar gains just yet. Ideally USDCHF still needs to push back to the 1.0524-33 area before it can be released higher and this tends to suggest we could see a messy recycling of the correction in EURUSD…

However, overall I do feel yesterday’s developments are more indicative of the underlying Dollar uptrend resuming. It’s more a matter of timing and confirmation.

There does seem to be an interesting structure developing in the JPY crosses. It’s still a bit fledgling but the early indications suggest that following some pullbacks we should see another round of gains. Given the outlook on the Europeans this is pointing to possible gains in USDJPY… Given the incredible period of erratic range trading it is best to wait for this move but above 90.79 & 91.08 would look quite positive.

I should add that I am basically still bearish for the JPY crosses and any gains do appear to be corrective rather than forming a new directional move.

A similar pattern of short term weakness in USDCAD still appears to be on the cards but should be followed by a retest of those 1.0316-19 highs but while these hold the overall downtrend remains in place.

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+60 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

No comments:

Post a Comment