Friday, March 19, 2010

The divergent development routes for EURUSD & USDCHF continue to confuse …

Please note that the report will take the Easter break from Friday 2nd April to Wednesday 7th April

Well, yesterday didn’t work anywhere as well as Wednesday… The glaring disparity between the performances of EURUSD versus USDCHF still provides a shroud over the true nature of what is actually developing. While EURUSD saw further sharp losses to end towards its low for the day, USDCHF found a solid barrier at the 1.0650 pivot resistance and also ended closer to its lows…

It should make today interesting. I continue to consider the 1.0465-98 area as quite an important support being not only a key daily pivot support but also quite a key retracement area. Perhaps I could stretch a little lower in an alternative structure but the fact that EURUSD came within around 140 pips of this year’s lows while USDCHF languishes more than double that away from its highs does seem to be telling us something… What’s more, while GBPUSD lost out yesterday, the prior target for gnashing teeth and general hatred only dipped 70-80 pips…

Still, with this level of volatility we are going to have to exercise some care. It’s not a clear picture today and I don’t see any obvious, clear cut calls. Even with USDJPY failed to follow-through on the downside after the break of 89.98-10 and saw the correction recycle right back up to 90.70-80 again. Since then the structural development doesn’t look 100% clear.

All this reflects in the JPY crosses which are similarly showing potential for some of the messy consolidation into which they habitually subside from time to time. I therefore suggest that unless we get some clear cut breaks that a healthy dollop of caution should be exercised in trading today.

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+55 pips).

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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