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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

The break of key Dollar supports tends to suggest we’ll see corrective price action

Please note that the report will take the Easter break from Friday 2nd April to Wednesday 7th April


Well, yesterday didn’t go well at all and it’s back to working out the larger wave structure. In the larger picture I remain Dollar bullish for another month. The bearish flag in EURUSD implies a target around 1.26-1.29. This should probably mean a new corrective high for USDCHF and I suspect a new low in GBPUSD but I need to work on that.

Therefore, what we are seeing now should be merely a correction and really I wouldn’t want to see much deeper than yesterday’s high in EURUSD, preferably no higher than the 1.3568 high. The rally to 1.3533 came in 3 waves and for those who follow Elliott Wave that warns of a complex correction and I suspect therefore we may well move messily back lower to the 1.3267 low again over the next day or two before reversing back to the 1.3533-68 area. Well, that’s the ideal scenario but the process could be pretty messy.

How that impacts on USDCHF is less clear as it is already in a correction from the 1.0897 high and this may well have room to dip below 1.0506 over the same period. GBPUSD still has positive momentum but for today I feel the 1.5150-70 area has a good chance of capping.

Where we may see a more directional move is in USDJPY. The failure to break below 92.04 yesterday and the move to new highs does seem to suggest we’re on our way higher with 93.47 and finally the 93.86-94.10 areas my favored peaking areas…

This seems to have more a more bullish impact on the crosses through AUDJPY looks to be close to an intermediate peak. However, the expectation of EURUSD creeping lower later may well limit the upside soon and cause a pullback lower.

USDCAD seems to have broken lower and should move back to retest the 1.0062 low.

Take care – it’ll probably be a messy day today – USDJPY for me has the clearer picture…

Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+95 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

The right sort of retracement levels held so the Dollar upside should be implied

Please note that the report will take the Easter break from Friday 2nd April to Wednesday 7th April


Well, we seemed to have seen the general expectations in EURUSD and USDCHF – a pullback that has not broken above 1.3517 EURUSD or below yesterday’s 1.0577 low in USDCHF. These remain the critical break level.

Overall, looking at the wave structure I am quite content with what we’ve seen and does appear to set up a final push higher in the Dollar. This should take a day or two – I doubt much more – but once the targets have been reached we could well be in line for a more sustainable pullback lower in the Dollar. This could take possibly a week, or perhaps a little more but bare in mind the weekly bearish flag in EURUSD that has a time target around the end of next month.

If I am to add any caveat to the outlook for today then it is that momentum in hourly EURUSD was a bit firm towards yesterday’s highs. I feel that the 1.3505 high probably provided the high – the ratios working quite well for the recovery from 1.3418. So just in case allow for 1.3517 that may provide a bearish divergence … or if it breaks on firm momentum then something has gone amiss and the correction is already starting.

USDJPY… back to it’s dormant self yesterday… Losses have been seen this morning and at first I though we’d seen a triangle breaking down but the subsequent movement seems to have denied this so we have to remain cautious until the 91.75 low is broken. Until then we could just be seeing a deep pullback and so far today’s low would still work well with the 93.86-94.10 target area. Work with breaks there…

The Aussie was much stronger than I had expected yesterday – just a bit mixed there as momentum has dropped off so only look for a return to 0.9248 if the 0.9195 high breaks. Otherwise we can see this drop back in a deeper correction.

Finally, USDCAD dropped off deeper than expected but until that break below yesterday’s low there’s still a half chance of seeing a final push higher in this correction before the next leg lower…

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+40 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Monday, March 29, 2010

While the pullback has been deeper than expected I remain Dollar bullish

Please note that the report will take the Easter break from Friday 2nd April to Wednesday 7th April


There has been some interesting developments over Friday and this morning and these had me scratching my head to cope with the conflict of structure in EURUSD and USDCHF again. The break below 1.0637 USDCHF breaks the larger bullish structure I had been following along with the bearish structure in EURUSD. I was juggling in my mind whether the break above 1.3401-18 implies a reversal in EURUSD also…

Then I recalled a support I had implicated last week at 1.3267 and then abandoned it on the first decline to 1.3286… I had overlooked that on Thursday we had actually reached the 1.3267 support and this actually works very well with a bearish structure but implies a potential correction to as high as 1.3510-17 before losses to new lows. In fact, I still favor this decline and over the coming few weeks still lower lows.

However, I have to work out what the dickens is going on with USDCHF. I can accept this morning’s low as a pullback but assuming the losses come in EURUSD I can’t really see a move above 1.0897 and maybe even not above 1.0807… I feel it should later move above those peaks but not before a new corrective low…

Anyway, let’s see what happens today and whether the 1.3510-17 area caps EURUSD…

USDJPY spent the day moving sideways. It still hasn’t broken below the 92.20-35 support indicated on Friday and I still see this area as important. While it does hold there is still risk of a final push higher otherwise things will not look so rosy again. I am struggling with the larger picture here with very bearish monthly cycles, mixed intermediate cycles for the coming months but a structure that would find it hard to incorporate too much strength. For now I’m content with the implied targets if the 92.20 support holds or the implied reversal if it doesn’t. Then I can work harder at the longer term.

The JPY crosses are beginning to look heavy in EURJPY and GBPJPY but less so in AUDJPY – although critical support in the latter is close. I suspect a messy day in all three…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with Friday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+105 pips).

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Friday, March 26, 2010

We could see a move back to around yesterday’s lows before the Dollar rallies again

Please note that the report will take the Easter break from Friday 2nd April to Wednesday 7th April


I shall keep this brief as I’m running a bit late today…

Dollar-Europe: Not too far from expectations but did need a little adjustment as the expected pullbacks in EURUSD and USDCHF were a little uncorrelated. However, USDCHF was pretty close to the warning that we could see a minor new high before falling back. I feel EURUSD has done something similar and thus we should see the correction recycle to yesterday’s Dollar lows – maybe just a touch below – before the uptrend resumes.

The only issue I have which causes me some alarm is the excessive projections now occurring in EURUSD. I shall need to watch this carefully as conservatively we’re talking 1.3080 and extreme 1.2949…

What did screw up my day yesterday was USDJPY. I’m finding this just a little tough as the implications do seem to be quite bullish. For the moment I am concentrating on the shorter-term moves and this still seems to have another peak to come – probably around the 93.96-94.10 area.

Thus we have a bit of balancing to do with the crosses as how far they can rally – if at all – depends on how correlated the Dollar rallies are. The last couple of days have seen an almost uncharacteristic correlation which means we shouldn’t see the crosses too much higher – except perhaps AUDUSD. Here AUDUSD looks like recycling the correction also and may well cause some quite solid follow-through on the cross – watch out for this one…

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+115 pips).

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Expect a pullback before further Dollar gains

Please note that the report will take the Easter break from Friday 2nd April to Wednesday 7th April


Ah… It wasn’t quite the quiet day I had expected but the market exploded against the majors. Game on. The one central indicator for me is the weekly bearish flag in EURUSD. This suggests another 5 weeks of losses and implied target to around 1.2700… Pullbacks should be relatively limited…

Thus we’re going to have to plan our strategies with a general bullish bias for some while yet but once that target is reached I feel we’ll have found the Dollar high for the year. Well, that’s the current structure I am looking at and we’ll judge from momentum on arrival at the target.

Having said that I don’t think we’ll see any follow-through today. From what I can see we have made an intermediate high in the Dollar. I doubt it will last for more than today or so before the rally resumes so look to find another entry into the bullish trend.

It is worth noting USDJPY also. Uncharacteristically it rallied along with the general Dollar direction. It poked its head just above the 92.27 resistance I had outlined but I think it may be done now. The problem I have here is that the rally was so sharp momentum has been left in a state of shock and remains apparently strong.

However, we have seen what may turn out to be a spike high – therefore watch out for what may be a total reversal over today. This is also supported by the JPY crosses. Here I am longer term bearish and feel that either yesterday’s highs were the final high – or possibly we may just see a small extension today. However, overall, while USDJPY can hold below 92.39-60 I think we’ll be back to the same pattern of strong losses in the crosses…

AUDUSD has dipped again and any rally should be sold into. I feel this could reach closer to the 0.8801 corrective low before turning higher. The equivalent in AUDJPY is a return to the 78.19 corrective low…

So for today, hold off from immediate Dollar buying and pick the right moment to get back in – and possibly favor the JPY crosses as these could well make one of their heart-stopping drops…

Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+100 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

I suspect this will be another range trading day overall but to set up Dollar gains

Please note that the report will take the Easter break from Friday 2nd April to Wednesday 7th April


Yesterday’s price action was more reflective of corrective price action and it doesn’t look complete. The message all round appears to be the same, GBPUSD & USDCHF apparently trapped in ranges, and the JPY crosses seeming to be in a languid mood.

EURUSD has fallen to new lows in this current decline and may well extend a little further, but unless it breaks below 1.4225-42 I’ll be a bit reticent to call this a resumption of Dollar gains just yet. Ideally USDCHF still needs to push back to the 1.0524-33 area before it can be released higher and this tends to suggest we could see a messy recycling of the correction in EURUSD…

However, overall I do feel yesterday’s developments are more indicative of the underlying Dollar uptrend resuming. It’s more a matter of timing and confirmation.

There does seem to be an interesting structure developing in the JPY crosses. It’s still a bit fledgling but the early indications suggest that following some pullbacks we should see another round of gains. Given the outlook on the Europeans this is pointing to possible gains in USDJPY… Given the incredible period of erratic range trading it is best to wait for this move but above 90.79 & 91.08 would look quite positive.

I should add that I am basically still bearish for the JPY crosses and any gains do appear to be corrective rather than forming a new directional move.

A similar pattern of short term weakness in USDCAD still appears to be on the cards but should be followed by a retest of those 1.0316-19 highs but while these hold the overall downtrend remains in place.

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+60 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

The stronger evidence appears to suggest Dollar strength – but only after a pullback

Please note that the report will take the Easter break from Friday 2nd April to Wednesday 7th April


USDCHF broke above 1.0645 and EURUSD below 1.3487 which combined appears to suggest we should see Dollar weakness develop over the coming weeks. However, in the immediate outlook there does seem to be risk of a pullback. Now, this is going to test the resilience of USDCHF to avoid any dip below 1.0506 as I feel the pullback in EURUSD should (ideally) be quite firm…

The only concern I have is that GBPUSD still looks weak. It can make a push lower independently but it is something to watch in case it drags the others with it. I doubt it as assuming I’m correct in GBPUSD, then it will be its turn to correct higher. Again, assuming this is the case it does possibly suggest that we could see some choppy consolidation in the Europeans over the coming couple of days.

The JPY crosses are pulling back higher after their losses yesterday but I can’t see this being sustainable. The greater risk does still seem to be lower and thus we should be aware of the possibility that USDJPY will begin to turn lower before too long. I doubt it will be today and if the past 10 days has any influence then it could be another dull day.

AUDUSD and AUDJPY seem to be correcting higher but once this is complete we could see further losses. USDCAD is mixed and probably still has some deeper correction before its next leg lower…

Today’s free analysis is for AUDJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+75 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Sunday, March 21, 2010

It certainly looks as if the EURUSD downtrend has resumed… but risks a pullback soon

Please note that the report will take the Easter break from Friday 2nd April to Wednesday 7th April

The steep decline in EURCHF continues and really does beg the question over the longer term implications. Until the recent pullback in the Dollar which saw both EURUSD and USDCHF approach key levels that could break the overall Dollar uptrend I had been (almost reluctantly due to the bearish implications in the USD cycles) been looking for a deeper recovery within a weekly sideways trading range. The concern I had over this scenario is that it would keep the Dollar within that range until the end of this year approximately.

Friday’s decline in EURUSD, which still sees USDCHF locked in a tight range close to its larger break levels around 1.0465-00, is approaching its lows. There are two scenarios for the Euro even if the losses are to continue. One is a very temporary halt around 1.3442 before extension to around 1.2950-60 and the other would require a steep pullback.

If we see the steep pullback – the apparent result would be a break in USDCHF below 1.0465-00. Thus USDCHF would appear to be bearish while still suggesting a much weaker EURUSD… If the alternative occurs then equivalent target in USDCHF is much higher around 1.1650 – in other words 1,000 pips above current levels. That will need some catching up with EURUSD…

If I am to approach this from the USDCHF side and look at the possibility that we’ll see direct losses then I have to come up with a more bullish scenario in EURUSD. That could be tough too. If there is any possibility then it would be that we have seen a complex correction from the original 1.3734 high recycle. That will mean that Friday’s low must hold. Any deeper drop to 1.3442 again would break that scenario.

It’s quite an interesting conundrum but we should receive more information over Monday. USDCHF needs to break above the 1.0645-80 pivot area to signal a more bullish intent.

It should be an interesting day…

Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with Friday’s Trader Package Review & Trade Set up report (+170 pips).

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Friday, March 19, 2010

The divergent development routes for EURUSD & USDCHF continue to confuse …

Please note that the report will take the Easter break from Friday 2nd April to Wednesday 7th April

Well, yesterday didn’t work anywhere as well as Wednesday… The glaring disparity between the performances of EURUSD versus USDCHF still provides a shroud over the true nature of what is actually developing. While EURUSD saw further sharp losses to end towards its low for the day, USDCHF found a solid barrier at the 1.0650 pivot resistance and also ended closer to its lows…

It should make today interesting. I continue to consider the 1.0465-98 area as quite an important support being not only a key daily pivot support but also quite a key retracement area. Perhaps I could stretch a little lower in an alternative structure but the fact that EURUSD came within around 140 pips of this year’s lows while USDCHF languishes more than double that away from its highs does seem to be telling us something… What’s more, while GBPUSD lost out yesterday, the prior target for gnashing teeth and general hatred only dipped 70-80 pips…

Still, with this level of volatility we are going to have to exercise some care. It’s not a clear picture today and I don’t see any obvious, clear cut calls. Even with USDJPY failed to follow-through on the downside after the break of 89.98-10 and saw the correction recycle right back up to 90.70-80 again. Since then the structural development doesn’t look 100% clear.

All this reflects in the JPY crosses which are similarly showing potential for some of the messy consolidation into which they habitually subside from time to time. I therefore suggest that unless we get some clear cut breaks that a healthy dollop of caution should be exercised in trading today.

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+55 pips).

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Thursday, March 18, 2010

No breaks of key Dollar supports seen but I think today could provide a stronger clue …

So will we see the Dollar break lower or not… The way things went, especially in GBPUSD, the evidence is growing and I’m being pushed more and more to the downside but until we get those breaks I’m going to sit tight for now. EURUSD and USDCHF still appear to lack coordination in terms of degree of movement, the pullback from the 1.3816 high I indicated seeing far more of a reaction than the limp recovery in USDCHF. It has also opened a conflict between the positions within their respective wave structures and this is a little disconcerting.

Trying to gain a stronger opinion via GBPUSD, the rally to the higher target at 1.5380 was perfect. The pullback was solid but there is a question mark over whether it is complete as it’s correcting a move from an earlier miniscule pullback which can tend to extend the depth and complexity of the correction.

Overall, if there is any common ground among them it is continued consolidation in EURUSD and GBPUSD and maybe a minor new low in USDCHF. Even a minor new low – and I’m eyeing 1.0465 – would be enough for me to turn Dollar bearish. However, the effect of a move to 1.0465 would actually then generate a correction and this is where we could see a resynchronization of the respective wave structures.

USDJPY… well, I was right with the consolidation although it didn’t quite take the form I had been expecting. However, never-the-less it has come to a point where it either needs to rally now… or it won’t… I’m really not in favor of continued consolidation and therefore breaks of yesterday’s ranges could provide and end to its stop-start movements. Therefore watch those breaks.

I find the JPY crosses rather mixed but seemingly more biased to the downside and we’ll need to see which will lead the move – USDJPY or the Europeans. However, I am still basically bullish for AUDUSD so I have doubts we’ll see too much on the AUDJPY downside…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+35 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

It seems that maybe we have come to a crunch time…

On the face of things yesterday worked out reasonably well. However, I’m not quite so sure. There are many occasions when I make a call and the move occurs but then falls apart. I pointed out yesterday a divergence in the reactions between EURUSD and USDCHF. The Swissie didn’t pullback as much as I’d expected but has moved down into the target support range. In comparison the Euro hasn’t recovered above its 1.3795 high.

Taking one step back, the 1.0514-39 area was as low as I could accept if the Dollar uptrend could resume. The high at 1.3795 in the Euro doesn’t have hold a strong impact. However, if the 1.0498 area USDCHF breaks the trend would appear to have reversed and we have to assume that the basic correlation between the Euro and Swissie will continue.

Take a few more steps back… I am very bearish for the Dollar for the next 2-3 years. The monthly cycles are really not in favor of the Dollar. Therefore I have always considered this strength in the Dollar to be corrective only. I had therefore been looking for a large daily sideways consolidation. However, this would imply consolidation probably through to next year. That really doesn’t give much time for the (very) bearish cycles to wreak their havoc.

From today I have begun to observe the alternative and in many ways it is what I would prefer to see because of the monthly cycles. I don’t think we’re going to get substantial follow-through lower today with the 1.0498 USDCHF and 1.3816 EURUSD areas appearing to provide resistance. Thus the result could be a rather range trading day following these tests. Beyond that we should be aware of the risks…

USDJPY is playing around – and the lack of follow-through higher is also concerning me. If this breaks down now it would appear to have a stronger bearish outlook too… I feel today may revert to range trading.

So the message is… take care… not all is straight forward right now but be aware of the risks of moves through 1.3820, 1.0465-98 and below 89.95 USDJPY…

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+55 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

While the Dollar has pulled back much deeper than expected, I still feel there is risk of one more drop…

I turned on my monitor this morning and looked at the charts… Cue jaw dropping…

Needless to say that this was a scenario that I just wasn’t looking for. Regrouping my thoughts and approach maybe this is a slightly better all round scenario. There had been a mild mismatch between USDCHF and EURUSD in terms of not only extent of points-to-target but also wave structure. The latter is not necessarily too critical as both have corrective structures but this pullback appears to be aligning them from the structure perspective.

It looks as if we should get a mild extension of the pullback over the first half of the day but while these next Dollar highs hold I think we’ll get another push lower. The points-to-target still has a wide gulf but yesterday displayed the tendency for EURUSD to move more sharply than USDCHF so perhaps this will be ok. We’ll still have to watch two areas for EURUSD but USDCHF seems to have a fairly well defined target.

GBPUSD is in much the same position in terms of expected modest losses in the first half of the day and I’m a bit cautious in case we just see the downtrend just resume, but I feel the scenario calling for another high does make the chart look a bit more balanced.

We’ll need to match these with USDJPY and the JPY crosses. I can’t see any strong topping signals in the crosses and while there is some degree of uncertainty coming from the failure for USDJPY to make stronger headway higher, I feel the crosses are still due another push higher. It’s a bit of a mixed bag so I suggest holding off and confirming a few levels that I’ll list in the individual analyses, but as long as USDJPY doesn’t collapse we should see a recovery soon.

So, there’s no overall change to my expectations that the Dollar will resume the underlying uptrend – it’s more a matter of “when” and no “if” so this must be kept in mind. Considering the overall structure I’ll go for a deeper pullback still but best keep an eye out over your shoulder…

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+10 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Monday, March 15, 2010

The break lower in the Dollar laid rest the immediate Dollar uptrend – but I don’t think there’s much more to go before it resumes…

Well, the break lower in the Dollar on Friday was pretty frustrating but while I think there’s a bit more to go I can’t get too bearish at this point. The clue comes from USDCHF which did not break to new highs at the time EURUSD reached 1.3442 (7 pips below the prior low.) From the 1.0897 peak in USDCHF we have almost completed a full set of corrective patterns. EURUSD is slightly different but a similar situation is developing there too.

The only issue I have to overcome is the difference in extension required to reach their respective targets – which should be around 1.0498-16 USDCHF (80-100 pips below current price) while EURUSD seems to have a target between 1.3906-40 (150-200pips above current price.) However, I do see an alternative at 1.3885 so we’ll need to watch both areas.

USDJPY frustrated also… However, the mild break higher to 91.08 and subsequent pullback does seem to settle the wave structure a little tidier than it had been on Friday. I still feel this means it should be returning to 92.14…

Once again this should all mean that the JPY crosses should be forging new highs as well but the important thing to realize here is that the implications from EURUSD and USDJPY both rising and then ending their rallies is that the crosses will be the bigger losers on the reversal… Identifying the tops of these is something to attempt…

So overall today & possibly into tomorrow does appear to be an interesting window of opportunity…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with Friday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+65 pips).

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Friday, March 12, 2010

The Dollar is on the brink of a strong rally against the Yen but limited drop against the Europeans

Yesterday was a bit of a mess and today may well follow suit. What looked to be a possible break out higher in USDJPY this morning failed to materialize and brings it back into a 90.20-74 range at the very least and even a small risk of a break of 90.20 to revisit the 89.52-62 area. I still like the more bullish outlook but we’re not really seeing strong trading with conviction right now so it’ll be worth keeping in mind the two scenarios…

We did see EURUSD & USDCHF put in some tedious performances with relatively tight range trading. The way I see it is for another push lower for the Dollar but stalling between the 1.3710-34 area EURUSD and 1.0648-75 USDCHF. This is pretty tight too and the daily Dollar bullish divergences do give me some concern but it just seems more likely that we’ll a reversal higher by the end of the day.

GBPUSD – well I had two scenarios yesterday and I chose the wrong one… I don’t see this taking off on the upside but does look as if we’ll see another high today below 1.5195 before coming off again.

All this could keep the JPY crosses in a consolidation. I am seeing greater potential for another hike higher and that’s once of the reasons I prefer the more bullish USDJPY scenario. However, the prospect would appear for a mainly sideways to modestly lower day in line with the limited movement in USDJPY and the expected lows in the Dollar against the Europeans.

Of all this can change if 1.3734 EURUSD and 1.0648 USDCHF break but we should only react to this when it happens. If it does… the follow-through would likely be very swift…

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+240 pips).

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Thursday, March 11, 2010

The market retains its preference to avoid a decision…

There wasn’t too much that went right yesterday… Perhaps the best call was in USDJPY which still appears to have the clearer structure but has not strictly adhered to normal wave relationships. As long as we don’t see too deep a correction now there should be a final push higher back to around 92.14. From there I’d look for the downtrend to resume once again.

This seems to fit into the JPY crosses – perhaps with the exception of AUDJPY which does appear to have found its high, just a bit below target, but the reaction from the 83.31 high has been more in line with what I’d expect from a reversal. However, here perhaps the downside will be triggered by AUDUSD but with some risk of consolidation if we see USDJPY rallying while AUDUSD falls…

Now, to cover GBPJPY and EURJPY… These really are a bit of a mess and stretch the imagination in trying to concoct scenarios that would allow for USDJPY to rally and the Europeans… well, there’s the Catch 22.

Clearly I didn’t expect the depth of the pullback we saw and it’s tempting to call for retests of retests of 1.3701 EURUSD and 1.0675 USDCHF. However, the structures of the corrections appear to suggest that they are complete corrections. If this is the case then we’re in for more consolidation. At this point I’d find it difficult to call for more direct Dollar strength. If it is going to happen (as I’d prefer) then we’re going to need some more sideways movement.

Of course, the alternative is loss of the Dollar lows. That would be a turn up for the books… It’s not my favored view but it is most certainly something to keep in the back of minds if 1.3734 & 1.0648 break… Those daily Dollar bearish divergences are still intact – they just need a break of key supports.

So if I have any stronger view, as cautious as it is, then it’s a stronger Dollar-Europe within range and a stronger USDJPY also which tends to keep the JPY crosses a bit messy…

Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+55 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Further positive progress for the Dollar and this should continue

The Dollar rally has not been a particularly strong one yet but so far the structure has been very encouraging and once this initial uncertainty has cleared we should see a stronger rally emerge.

I do have a feeling though that there is still some short term risk of consolidation. I say this due to the position in the JPY crosses. They were probably the hardest to analyze this morning but the message I had from each of them was that we’re due a pullback lower followed by new corrective highs in the new downtrend.

Of all, AUDJPY is the clearest with a peak expected up at 83.40-50 and this should be matched with the target in AUDUSD. This cross in particular should then begin losing ground and should be down more to AUDUSD. Now, given I’m still bullish for USDJPY that means AUDUSD must drop faster than USDJPY can rally following the test of 83.40-50.

EURJPY and GBPJPY are similarly bearish once they have completed their pullback higher and the losses should move to new lows. Again, the only risk we have to look for is potential shorter term consolidation. Having said that, considering I’m quite bullish for USDJPY we should then begin to see EURUSD and GBPUSD begin to accelerate lower and then it’ll be a balance between the USDJPY strength and other currency losses again.

Thus, for today we just need to contain extreme Dollar bullishness for now and spot the opportunities. I do think we’ll see the Dollar attempt to move higher again today but probably in the same controlled manner as yesterday. Perhaps USDJPY is more likely to produce a clearer move…

However, still remember the underlying message is Dollar bullish and will only change if last week’s lows are broken.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+100 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

So far, so good … but we need just a little more Dollar strength to confirm trend resumption

I knew identifying those Dollar lows would be a tough task… However, they came and we’ve seen constructive gains albeit fairly contained and without setting the market on fire. It may just take a little longer too but all being well, by the end of the day I feel we’ll see upward progress. The key now to a more positive outcome are yesterday’s Dollar corrective lows and of course last weeks’.

There is still a risk of a minor new high in early trading but then a pullback and that will be the one to watch. Assuming I’m correct and this is just a correction the next rally will be stronger and should break through the 1.3533 EURUSD low and the 1.0807 USDCHF high to reach the Dollar highs so far.

Now, in GBPUSD I am a little mixed. It didn’t quite reach my target but this morning has broken below the 1.4997 low. It tends to argue against a move to 1.5206-32 and thus the major risk is lower. Thus we need to navigate the risk of any correction but if anything it looks pretty bearish again.

USDJPY had a quiet day after last week’s rampant rush higher. I still have a more bullish preference but the problem I face here is sharp moves which hide the underlying structure and thus make it tough to identify projections and retracements. I’m not in favor of a move below 89.75 but I’m also not in favor of a direct rush back to the 92.14 high. The type of move I am expecting is a third push higher, probably to around 90.92 and then a deep pullback before a final attempt back at that corrective high. If we see this below 89.75 I’ll get a bit edgy…

This clearly will have impact on the crosses which I still feel may have room for one more push higher so we have a balance between how fast the Dollar rallies versus the Europeans and also against the Yen. It does tend to smack of typical cross-rate volatility so take care.

However, the underlying message is still Dollar bullish still and will only change if last week’s lows are broken.

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+165 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Monday, March 8, 2010

We are at a stage where several corrective structures could develop within the Dollar bullish view

Friday was partly as expected and partly quite different. The low in EURUSD at 1.3533 and the high in USDCHF at 1.0807 were within range of expectations. From these levels we have seen a pullback that may have completed. The problem with this early stage of the renewed bullish thrust is that retracements can be any where between very shallow to even 100%. We could even see an extended correction going sideways.

Therefore the near term vagaries of the different potential alternatives has to be handled with just a bit of care. Personally I’d like to just see direct follow-through higher for the Dollar but I feel the position in GBPUSD together with the duality of USDJPY and its crosses are tending to confuse life somewhat.

The 1.5178 target in GBPUSD has all been met but the way it has rallied does seem to me as if it could extend just a little further – possibly to 1.5206-30. USDJPY also still looks bullish but is probably more likely to have a much quieter day today within a corrective range. However, this does seem to point to a retest of the 92.14 high again by late tomorrow – possibly could extend into Wednesday.

Consequently the JPY crosses also looked buoyed up having reached levels much higher than expected and this does seem to suggest that EURUSD may have problems resuming the downtrend.

Therefore we are back to looking across the entire range of currency pairs to watch for breaks and correlations between key support & resistance levels in the individual currency pairs. It all sounds a bit of a pain but this does appear to be the risk I see…

However, the underlying message is still Dollar bullish still and will only change if last week’s lows are broken.

Today’s free analysis is for AUDJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with Friday’s Trader Package Weekly Review & trade Set up report (+85 pips).

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Friday, March 5, 2010

The Dollar uptrend appears to be resuming

The alternate Dollar bearish structure broke down pretty quickly and this really opens up the underlying uptrend and as long as any pullback today is contained I think the next stop will be back around the recent highs but not for too long. Overall I think this is going to be a solid extension of gains and has potential to reach the next targets as early as next week or perhaps into the following.

One small interesting development was the limited decline in GBPUSD and as long as the 1.5005 low hold I feel that we should actually see this reach its upside target as EURUSD and USDCHF also see a correction to their moves. However, make no mistake, the recent bearishness for the Pound does look like extending but perhaps maintain a similar pace to its European comrades.

What has confused me somewhat is USDJPY. The 88.18 target was met and mildly overshot but this was meant to be a temporary low. However, the pullback has been pretty deep and I have some problems in being totally comfortable with the structure. At this point, as I feel the downside targets are still much lower it looks like this is just a correction and probably a needed one as the decline from 92.14 has not seen too much. Therefore I still feel we need sell into this recovery but I doubt it will get above 90.00 on this move.

This has kept the JPY crosses in check and still pretty choppy. I don’t think the consolidation is complete yet and may just see some new highs but overall I remain bearish for these crosses. There does seem to be a little way to go and if my Dollar-Europe view is correct along with the need for new lows in USDJPY the coming decline can be pretty aggressive.

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+80 pips).

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Thursday, March 4, 2010

It’s make or break for the Dollar uptrend…

Well, yesterday was interesting. The Dollar extended its losses and to the extremes of what I could possibly accept within a correction. It stalled just 1 pip above the 1.3733 resistance offered yesterday and the 1.0646 USDCHF support. These are critical levels and breach will mean that, for the moment at least, the Dollar will extend recent losses. It won’t be totally direct with one pullback expected from just below yesterday’s lows. However, once this is over the next move could satisfy the double bottom in EURUSD and double top in USDCHF.

For the Dollar uptrend to resume we’re going to need breach of key resistance levels – which I will outline in the individual analyses. However, if I see any stronger wave relationships between the two scenarios the Dollar bearish one actually wins hands down…

This has allowed GBPUSD to recover more deeply, stalling at the 1.5129 resistance but could still make the 1.5178 resistance. Here we have a conflict in terms of upside potential if the Dollar breaks through yesterday’s lows in the continental currencies. The Dollar bearish risk would be quite strong in the continentals and we’ll have to see whether 1.5178 can withstand the force of the anticipated drop… Take care.

On to USDJPY which, while it didn’t take the expected route to 88.33 finally bounced from 88.31. The recovery has been far from impressive but we do have the support of both hourly & 4-hour bullish divergences. Take it easy in the initial stages, but if it can overcome some key resistance points then a deeper pullback is possible. If not… well, then we’re going to see it reach it’s lower target.

All this places some conflict and potential confusion in the JPY crosses. These have been pretty messy over the past few days and I’d prefer to leave well alone to let themselves sort themselves out. Consolidation in these crosses can be rather unpleasant affairs. Overall, I do feel the downside should develop sooner or later.

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+210 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

The Dollar appears to be recycling the correction against the Europeans

All looked well for a while yesterday, the Dollar pushing up higher and even forcing a marginal new low in EURUSD but then completely reversed. I am treating this more as a recycling of the overall correction and should therefore imply a test around the 1.3687 high in EURUSD and potentially the 1.0665-95 area in USDCHF.

However, there is one possible “catch” to this scenario as a break above the 1.3687 high would actually confirm a double bottom. We’ll have to treat this with care and just ensure that the shorter time frames confirm a bearish divergence at that area for any significant breach it could set off a string of stop loss orders that could provoke quite a strong follow-through – and remember the Dollar bearish divergences in EURUSD and USDCHF daily charts…

I’m still hanging my hat on a resumption of the uptrend and while the start may be a little choppy it does still seem to be the more logical implication.

The renewed strength in EURUSD is providing GBPUSD with a new lease of life… but probably only a short term lease… I had mentioned yesterday that I felt the ideal was for a slightly deeper pullback and this seems to be playing through. While 1.5170-80 caps the downtrend still remains in place.

Watch USDJPY as this appears now to be setting itself up for a more decisive reaction. The 88.33 area is the crucial support and while it holds (with a solid bullish divergence in the 4 hour chart) it could generate a more sustainable correction. Much below 88.30 and the scenario will turn itself on its head and extend losses by over 100 pips…

Finally, just to cover the JPY crosses – well, it all rests on the shoulders of USDJPY really. I am more bearish in the medium term but there’s sufficient choppiness to suggest we may still be in the midst of a correction. Once they break lower then the move should accelerate but until that point take care.

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+80 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

All being well the Dollar should push to new highs against the Europeans

Yesterday saw some mixed results which can be split into the correct call for the Dollar to resume its uptrend against the Europeans and the lack of follow-through lower in USDJPY which therefore impacted on the JPY crosses.

Of course, the big mover on the day was GBPUSD. While I was bearish the extent of the losses outstripped my more conservative expectations but is in line with the underlying bearish medium term view. There will be further to come also and possibly this could be direct also. I can see two sides of the (Pound) coin here as my first analysis of GBPUSD indicated potential for the correction to deepen but then GBPJPY looks more directly bearish. This may be a factor of USDJPY but the follow-through I have been anticipating to the 88.33 area did not materialize.

However, I do feel that EURUSD and USDCHF should resume their trends and this does seem to point to new Dollar highs, possibly as soon as today but certainly the week should now see extension higher and in line with the medium term targets. It would seem logical to expect GBPUSD to tag along for the ride. Once the Pound comes under pressure it can often be an easy ride with limited corrections. Thus, take care here and always favor the downside…

Just to step back to USDJPY – we have two options as far as I can see – a move above yesterday’s high which would then allow follow-through to 89.80 and maximum 90.02-23 or the original 88.33 target will be seen first before recovering. Having said that, I do still feel there will be a lower target below 88.33 over the course of this week or perhaps next.

On the JPY crosses GBPJPY looks directly bearish while EURJPY and AUDJPY seem to point to marginal new highs before weakness returns to generate new lows. Thus, this highlights the need for some early care while the individual currency pairs develop but with the emphasis on the JPY crosses…

Yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+85 pips) can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users