Friday, February 26, 2010

We shouldn’t see a repeat of yesterday although USDJPY should see one further low today

The sleeping cow was kicked wide awake yesterday…

First, USDJPY just collapsed. It was always a risk and I feel there is probably more chance today of this following through but only to a marginal new low and running into the weekend and into the early days of next we should see a correction develop. However, further out there is still downside risk.

This should be somewhat reflected in the JPY crosses although I am less in favor of new lows today. Here I feel we have seen enough for now and a correction is due but we’ve just about reached initial resistance as I write and thus we could find this a down-up day for these pairs.

As I wrote yesterday, don’t believe the Dollar will follow-through higher directly and so it came to pass. The next leg is now the issue and if I have any preference I feel we can see the Dollar fall back once again to the corrective lows seen since the peaks. I haven’t changed the underlying bullish view – it’s just a matter of this most likely being a complicated correction, potentially a flat one, or close to flat.

This tends to be supported by GBPUSD which managed one of its “whoops, I just lost 300 points” days. It doesn’t look like the end overall but it should be requiring a pullback before it declines in tandem with EURUSD. When that happens then the JPY crosses can extend their losses too – and these still seem to have some way to go.

AUDUSD – much the same as the Europeans – due a pullback higher but will extend losses next week…

Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+200 pips).

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

No comments:

Post a Comment