Wednesday, February 24, 2010

The market needs a new scriptwriter…

If there is a scriptwriter for this market then I think he’s using a language which I can’t understand… Yesterday’s moves completely surprised me and really make the next forecast many times more difficult. With the primary Dollar trend being higher the sensible thing would be just to sit on the back of the trend and call it higher.

Maybe it will, but the sort of targets being implied by a direct resumption of the uptrend just don’t seem to be supported by what we saw yesterday. Then what’s the alternative? I am rather loathe to suggest it as I really haven’t caught recent moves at all well… but the other argument would suggest a flip back lower again to the sort of targets I have been indicating…

That’s just about as difficult as flipping a coin. However, I do see some support for this particularly in GBPUSD and AUDUSD.

Let’s look elsewhere. I was just as annoyed with USDJPY which slipped quickly below all my supports and flips me back to the larger scenario looking for a larger daily range trading scenario. This does look like it has further to go now with momentum hitting lows so it would seem likely that we’ll see the JPY crosses following behind. However the JPY crosses, while I still expect some minor extension lower today, don’t look as if they’ll significantly breach their old lows directly and more likely force a pullback higher.

Now this also supports the argument for the Dollar to whip back against the Europeans…

Therefore I feel the JPY crosses along with USDJPY are going to lead us to the more appropriate path. Whether I’m right or wrong about this whole scenario I do feel that what happens in the JPY crosses should provide us with the clues we need…

Another day to take care…

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+250 pips).

Good luck
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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