Monday, February 1, 2010

I stick now with the underlying Dollar bullish view but the day’s outlook is unclear…

Friday was a mixed bag, a bullish day for the Dollar overall as expected and hit targets in EURUSD (just below to 1.3857 this morning) and to 2 pips below the 1.0641 resistance in USDCHF. In the process it has pushed momentum to extremes and this suggests there should be further gains to come…

That’s just about as precise as I can get at this point… The problem I had this morning was finding a structure where the wave relationships worked – and across the entire decline from 1.4578 EURUSD… If there is any common ground then it may well be for a mildly deeper pullback although I can see conflicts even with this. Therefore I think it’s going to have to be a day when we watch for breaks levels again… as frustrating as that may be…

However, the clear picture is that the Dollar remains with a more bullish sentiment and this should be kept in mind. Fighting recent gains has not borne much fruit and there doesn’t appear to be any obvious reversal signals…

Two currencies that push me more to a Dollar pullback are GBPUSD and AUDUSD, both of which opened with a rush lower this morning but which both seemed to find support areas that suggest a correction higher should be due soon. The immediate uncertainty is whether there will be one more dip before the recovery becomes stronger.

Also, note the JPY crosses that appear to have developed some short term risk of a pullback higher which tends to slot in with a Dollar correction lower also.

Thus, I feel the day could have potential for some early whips, maybe even some minor new Dollar highs, but then settle back into a trading range…

Today’s free analysis is for GBUSD and can be found on along with yesterday’s trade set up reports (+95 pips) and the review of the support & resistance levels issued in the daily report and FX-forecaster Trader Package.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey

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