Friday, February 19, 2010

The Dollar upside beckons…

Price developed pretty close to expectations yesterday, failing to follow-through on the first test but this morning has pushed to new highs once again and it seems very likely we’ll see more as the day goes by. Overall I see this moving to 1.3222 EURUSD and 1.1017 USDCHF and thus the emphasis should be buying any pullback.

Equally USDJPY has pushed higher and above the 91.75 target. However, it should be very close to an intermediate high and I really can’t see much progress from here over the day. More, with the JPY crosses looking ragged, I feel the greater pips value is going to come here with USDJPY most probably going to be negatively correlated to the Europeans. I would not be too surprised to see a push closer to the lows from two weeks ago.

I am a little mixed on AUDUSD but I am beginning to feel that AUDJPY will be seeing a correction only and while it should be soft today and possibly even Monday there appears to be a stronger risk of a push to new highs here.

This shouldn’t be too much of a surprise as USDJPY should be undergoing a correction only over today and possibly Monday but a retest of the 93.75 high does seem probable now. This does fit in with the surprise larger bullish structure… In addition to that, once the Europeans reach their targets they should also begin a more sustainable correction higher. Already the daily charts in EURUSD and USDCHF are showing Dollar bearish divergences and I suspect this rally now will probably only deepen these.

Good luck.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+85 pips).

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey

FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at €20.00 pm
For MT4 users

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