Thursday, August 20, 2009

We should see mostly range trading but only after a marginal new Dollar low

Early trading yesterday was quite defensive as I had thought but the end of the day spurned a sudden rush to the downside for the Dollar. It should still have further to go but while the first half of the day could see additional losses against the Europeans I don’t think this will extend too far – probably the 1.4300-10 area EURUSD and 1.0542-73 area USDCHF. On GBPUSD I am less certain but if this pops up too then the 1.6637-53 area should be tops.

This should then cause a slightly longer correction and once this is complete the next leg lower can be seen that will challenge the 1.4445 high EURUSD and well, we’ll probably see as low as 1.0458 or 1.0390 USDCHF… However, the implication is that we are unlikely to see a repeat of the sharp losses today but will have to be patient for another day or so…

USDJPY dipped nicely to the expected 93.75 target and just below to 93.60. This too looks like it now requires a correction higher and I’m looking for this to resume before too long towards the 94.95-20 area. That’s probably as much as we get and after that the downside will be at risk once again. For today I feel the 95.90 level should hold any pullback now for the rally.

This should give some early lift to the JPY crosses for the duration of the bullishness of USDJPY and while the Europeans are consolidating. Given that AUDUSD is also expected to see a small correction this could keep AUDJPY in a range but probably a slightly higher one but then we’ll have to see how the balance between USDJPY and AUDUSD develops.

USDCAD saw the heavy losses I felt were at risk. Right now we are seeing some consolidation but the downside is still definitely a risk and remember that a second sharp decline is something I can’t totally rule out…

Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on along with yesterday’s trade set ups (0 pips).

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

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