Thursday, July 30, 2009

It looks like a range trading day today

The conflict I see in EURUSD and USDCHF still remains. Without a doubt we have seen the overall reversal that I had been looking for (but from 1.4338) so I’ll stick with a Dollar bullish view and try to see how the conflict can be resolved. It does look as if at some point we’re going to need EURUSD to play catch-up and I can take a guess at how this may be reflected in the wave structure for USDCHF.

As long as I’m right on what I see in EURUSD I’d say this has the clear view and thus I’ll stick with this for now and wait for some reaction in USDCHF. However, I feel that the Dollar will probably not show the degree of strength seen yesterday and for the most part today could be more corrective in nature. That doesn’t preclude marginal Dollar highs – quite the contrary I feel it will – but I can’t see this being aggressive at this point. That could keep GBPUSD in a range also.

USDJPY behaved pretty close to expectations but this is due a pullback as well today. We’ll have to see how far this will retrace but overall I have my eyes on the 96.15-51 area as the final target from where another round of losses can be seen.

AUDUSD still has more losses to go and USDCAD some more gains once the current sideways consolidation is completed.

That just leaves the JPY crosses which almost look as if they could try the upside today but with USDJPY expected to be soft – and EURUSD consolidating but with a marginal low – it looks as if the crosses will follow-their lead.

Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be found on along with yesterday’s trade set ups (285 pips).

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

No comments:

Post a Comment