Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Yesterday's new lows confirm lower lows - but an end by Friday

Well, the idea that the Dollar may have found its low was quickly decided… and so it seems the downtrend should continue. However, it is worth mentioning that the 4-hour charts are now developing Dollar bullish divergences to match those of the daily and 8-hour too. These can of course become extended but we should now have in the back of our minds that a reversal can develop at any time.

The obvious targets are now at 1.4717 EURUSD, 1.0370 USDCHF and in GBPUSD possibly as high as1.6849-63. Let just say these are the next focus. What does strike me is that we are seeing a pretty one way move right now with very shallow corrections so the alternative that occasionally develops is a runaway spike bottom.

Today doesn’t seem to suggest anything but the same. It does seem as if the hours up to European open could see the Dollar drifting higher but probably stalling around the last corrective (Dollar) highs at 1.4240-60 EURUSD, 1.0661-68 USDCHF and 1.6500-05 GBPUSD. Look for losses to continue from there.

USDJPY lost out as suggested yesterday and I’d expect there to be extension to 94.67-95 at the very least. Reaction here will decide whether we’ll move back into the sideways consolidation or we’ll see the next drop below 93.84…

I suspect it may well dip further since the JPY crosses do seem to need to recycle their corrections lower and on the assumption that the European currencies appreciate it would imply that the Yen needs out perform the Europeans…

Elsewhere AUDUSD is in the same boat – still minor dips to be seen before the next leg higher towards 0.8297-13 while USDCAD seems to fit into this plan too… 1.0863-83 should be enough for the next downward leg…

I’m still struggling to get access to the website back… and I hope this will happen by Friday.

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

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