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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Thursday, April 30, 2009

The medium term Dollar downtrend looks set to resume - but how deep will the correction be?

Well, I can’t claim there was any range trading yesterday… The medium term Dollar bearish outlook appears to be developing directly and this should be the theme for the coming days and probably overall another 2-3 weeks.

We are due a correction though. I have to add a little caution as if the market has suddenly got the frights then the past two years has shown that corrections can be exceptionally brief. So let’s just say that barring any rapid follow-through a correction is more likely today. In the larger picture I see the next targets at 1.3891 EURUSD and 1.0912 USDCHF where a further correction will be due.

The only pair that didn’t follow a bearish path was USDJPY – but in the larger picture a bigger pullback was due and this seems to have occurred more directly than I thought it would. The peak at 97.96 was a bit above my retracement target but in line with the second wave higher that started earlier than expected… I’ll stick with the larger bearish view but will also add that if we see 98.04 broken by any degree this will be very uncomfortable for the bearish wave structure. I wouldn’t really want to be holding any short position at that point and then begin to review the entire structure…

However, in support of a potential cap in USDJPY the crosses likewise made a much sharper recovery than I had been expecting. Here I see potential retracement areas around 130.88 EURJPY and 145.26 GBPJPY and with the hourly charts displaying bearish divergences I’d like to think these will hold.

Thus the combination of a break of the hourly bearish divergences and the resistance levels I’ve mentioned may well cause a much stronger rally – so take care.

I stuck my head out too far in GBPUSD and promptly had it chopped off… The rally is in line with the general Dollar weakness and I certainly wouldn’t want to fight this right now. It does tend to confirm gains but watch first resistance around 1.4833…

Likewise AUDUSD and USDCAD which have given me so much problem recently jumped on the bearish US Dollar bandwagon and these moves seem set to continue also…

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be seen on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups.

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

There are a few conflicts so potentially today will see range trading

Overall I was pretty happy with the ways things went yesterday. There were a few deviations from the price path I had envisaged but not too far with the main emphasis on a reversal lower for the Dollar developing well by the European afternoon. I remain Dollar bearish in the medium term but the near term uncertainty is whether this will occur directly or whether we’re going to see some short term consolidation before those losses really take hold.

With the JPY crosses hitting their targets on the downside it should mean we get a moderately firm correction their declines from respective highs. Indeed, USDJPY bounced exceptionally well from the support area and should now move to around 97.68 this does lend some support but probably not enough for the JPY crosses to meet their target retracements. This does therefore imply that the Dollar may well weaken fairly directly against the Europeans which will allow those deeper JPY cross targets.

Still, I find the diverging performances of EURUSD and USDCHF just a little confusing – the former still a long way of its 1.3737 high while USDCHF has seen a far more robust decline. This in itself raises the thought that some early consolidation is possible. The conflict between the two scenarios is just a little too pronounced to actually be 100% certain. Thus we need be aware of the levels that will distinguish between the two and I’ll go through these in the individual analyses.

One thing that does attract me to the consolidation argument is the fact the Pound moved sideways yesterday and given the general expectation of a weakening Dollar this is causing a few problems for a directly bullish stance. Thus it would appear to imply a second push lower – possibly to around 1.4433 – before it can recover more strongly.

Thus take care with the majors, but keep in the back of your mind that the argument is moving more firmly towards a Dollar bearish outcome.

I’m still struggling with USDCAD and AUDUSD but I both I can still see a US$ bearish outcome – the question remains whether this will occur directly and from AUDUSD the bias does seem to be for one more low before it can rally…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups.

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

I doubt yesterday's Dollar gains will follow-through by much and expect a reversal

I was right to say the Dollar would begin to rally again… but the idea that we would get a prior new low proved wayward as the Dollar pressed relatively quickly through key resistance to extend gains… It leaves us in perhaps in no-man’s land considering that we have failed to overcome the Dollar supports at 1.3391 EURUSD and 1.1303 USDCHF while neither has there been any confirmation that there will be new highs before the larger turn-round where I feel the Dollar will lose out over the coming few weeks.

The way the Dollar has rallied doesn’t look to me, at this point, as if we shall see new highs. I do suspect we’ll see a small extension later today with tentative targets at1.2929 EURUSD and 1.1628-58 USDCHF. From there we should see a move back lower but we’ll have to take care in case this turns into a sideways consolidation.

The reason I mention the sideways consolidation is down more to USDJPY which failed to join the rally against the Europeans and has this morning dipped further to reach 96.26 and still has a little more to go into the 95.50-95 support area from where I expect a modest correction. On the assumption that the Dollar is likely to lose out against both the Europeans and Yen I suspect that the correction in USDJPY could yield a sideways consolidation against the Europeans.

The Pound did have a bad day as expected. I can’t say the levels were totally accurate but the recovery from 1.4514 has looked more solid. As elsewhere we are still finely balanced between bullish & bearish. Partly because we’ve not seen a good bearish divergence in the daily chart and the fact we’ve not see the downside confirmed it is difficult to be too forceful about either side. I can’t help but feel that once the Dollar begins to decline that it must have an impact on GBPUSD – and therefore I shall leave my options open.

The JPY crosses do seem close to important support that could cause a correction while AUDUSD and USDCAD continue to confound, seemingly in their own private worlds… It therefore seems we’ll need to still take some care with these two…

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups.

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

Monday, April 27, 2009

We are close to a Dollar low but there is still risk of one more dip before the recovery

Friday saw the Dollar basically extend its losses versus the Euro, Swiss Franc & Yen and this was right in line with expectations while the Pound languished to the point where it’s beginning to look vulnerable.

Starting with the first three, we have seen the Dollar push very close to the targets I outlined. However, in spite of the direct nature of the decline I can’t say that we’ve seem momentum really display any sign of slowing. I performed the analysis for these three before the open and so far they are working quite well within the boundaries I feel will hold in a correction. As such the obvious implication is that I do feel there is risk of one more low in this current sequence – and I envisage these to be around 1.3328-57 EURUSD, 1.1289-1.1317 USDCHF and probably just below 95.95 in USDJPY – the 95.35-50 area being favored.

All these broad areas are implies by both internal projections and the normal area at which the market will baulk at pushing any further as it will mean confirming a larger reversal lower. I do feel this larger reversal is likely to occur but not before a correction at the very least.

Just to cover GBPUSD, the peak at 1.4772 does have an ominous note about it – being a resistance area in a stronger move lower. Thus, for the Pound to benefit any further this resistance must break. However, I am beginning to turn quite bearish since as long as the final Dollar decline described against the other major three currencies does not push GBPUSD above 1.4772 the next bigger move should be that Dollar bullish correction. This is what could take the Pound much lower so keep aware of the key levels in this one…

This leaves the JPY crosses still short term uncertain as Friday didn’t bring the losses I had expected. I still feel there should be one more low here but with there being a higher degree of correlation between all of them the short term risk seems sideways and then we’ll have to see how strong the Dollar recovery will be and whether USDJPY lags the Europeans…

The last two, AUD & CAD have been particularly tough to read recently. I tentatively feel these are becoming clearer but given the considerable level of uncertainty it will be best to still use a lot of caution here…

Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with Friday’s trade set ups.

Have a profitable week.
Ian Copsey

Friday, April 24, 2009

There are mixed signals so care to be taken - USDJPY should pullback higher

I’m not sure what to make of yesterday. We saw the Dollar drop off which is what I was looking for but somehow I can’t get too enthusiastic about either the degree or the manner of these losses. I had expected to go through the analysis today and advise that the losses will continue. To be honest I can’t rule it out totally but especially in USDCHF the decline just doesn’t look constructive enough to call this a resumption of the downtrend.

I do expect a small extension at the least but beyond that I’ll want some key supports to give way to rest more comfortably on the bearish side. I want it to happen but I do still look at the larger correction from the 1.3737 high in EURUSD and the 1.1157 low in USDCHF and see that while it has done enough to satisfy the correction the structure it has taken would allow another rally… Even in GBPUSD I need a break above 1.4774-1.4811 to really suggest the downward move is complete…

USDJPY continues to confuse also. It has failed on the downside and now also on the upside, it seems the bullish and bearish influences in the market quite balanced right now. The problem I have is that the wave structure on both sides of the market have become pretty mixed and inconclusive. I have a basic bearish preference though in a MT structure could accept a return to 99.74-00. On the downside I see support around 97.09 and it does seem to have a bearish bias right now.

That should keep the JPY crosses a little under pressure but take care in GBPJPY around 143.05-15 – only breach confirms. EURJPY looks as if it can move lower directly.

Finally, both AUDUSD and USDCAD still look less than convincing on either side of the market. The deeper pullback in USDCAD took me a bit by surprise but this is a choppy currency pair. We do still therefore need to be aware of both sides of the market and look for breaks.

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups. So far this month there have been only 2 losses and up to 1,917 pips of profitable sets ups…

Have a great weekend.
Ian Copsey

Thursday, April 23, 2009

A cautious approach is advised today

Yesterday was a day I’d like to forget. Not a lot went right and the parts that did didn’t last for long…

I’ll center my comments initially on USDJPY. The rush down to 97.57 has put the short term under a lot of focus but may well begin to provide greater clues as to the medium term. As I write it is threatening to break lower once again and even if I don’t like the wave structure too much a break below 97.57-74 would suggest follow-through to 97.09-18. This would tend to fit in with the longer term bearish view but I suspect a correction first. Until the 97.52-57 area breaks there does still remain a risk that we’ll recycle to 99.74-00.

This should send the JPY crosses lower but quite how strongly is going to be decided by what the Dollar decides to do against the European crosses.

I have to say that the Europeans are quite confusing. In particular the dive down to 1.4396 GBPUSD came as a big surprise and I’m really not too certain how to take this. I wasn’t to remain bullish but this is seriously testing the limits of the structure I am looking at.

Even the Euro baulked at my Dollar bullish view – well, it did make a new high against the Euro but by only a slim 3 pips. The recovery has been firm but not yet enough to confirm a larger reversal higher. USDCHF was similar except the 1.1740 high remained intact but I can’t say the decline was convincing…

I’m therefore preferring to wait for price to tell us what it’s going to do next. I’m open to both ways but you will know that I have been basically Dollar bearish and I really need price to start demonstrating this rather than remain in tight ranges and causing whipsaws…

Even USDCAD and AUDUSD found it hard to really come up with a confident move in either direction. Thus, while it makes trading tough, I’ll prefer to sit on the sidelines until some stronger signal comes along.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups.

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

There is a risk of Dollar gains once again today

We saw some good calls and some wayward ones yesterday. I had fully expected to write about the Dollar resuming it’s long term decline today but having gone through the analyses there are a number of conflicts and I feel it’s going to be a mainly bullish day today.

Let’s start with USDJPY which stalled at 97.65 and then never managed to follow-through. It has pulled back to a level that could be considered just a very deep correction but I feel the 97.65 level was too close to a potential low in a complex correction and the break higher is more likely to be a recycling of the correction back to the 99.74-00 area.

The Europeans performed slightly inconsistently. I was satisfied with the Dollar losses but only to a certain extent. In USDCHF the pullback was very tame and while EURUSD managed to recover a little better it hasn’t really reached a level that would confirm a reversal higher. In the meantime GBPUSD actually saw a solid rally and is in line with my expectations that we have seen a larger low here.

In the JPY crosses we have some conflict too. EURJPY managed a very limp push higher while GBPJPY reached a corrective resistance that should imply losses.

Thus if I look across them all – if I expect USDJPY to rally from the 97.44-48 area then I must expect EURUSD and GBPUSD to fall while USDCHF must rally. While we have seen the Dollar pullback higher quite deeply and of a degree to satisfy a normal pullback ratio in Elliott Wave terms it can be consider to have potential for just a bit more.

Considering the limited nature of yesterday’s Dollar weakness I am tending towards the side that we’ll see Dollar gains today that should see new highs against the Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen but should provide a correction only against the Pound.

AUDUSD & USDCAD are a touch clearer but not 100% so they still require some careful attendance. However, overall I do still see upside potential in USDCAD while AUDUSD is mixed but could easily suffer a deep correction as in GBPUSD…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html together with yesterday’s trade set ups.

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Tentatively I feel we should see Dollar losses resume...

If Friday was strange then yesterday was as well. Friday saw USDCHF rally strongly while EURUSD and GBPUSD held back while yesterday the opposite happened… I’m basically comfortable with yesterday’s overall moves. One or two currency pairs exceeded expectations but it doesn’t really cause the medium term view to alter.

To start with the decline in USDJPY has at long last provided more solid evidence of the cycle high having been seen at 101.43. At the 97.65 low it has been left hanging a little in mid-target and could even be interpreted as only part of a complex correction. I’ll stick with my original view – that we’ll see the 97.09 area today and that should provide a correction ahead of the anticipated decline to around the 95.95 low. However, I will point out the resistance that needs to hold for this otherwise we could see a larger recycling of the correction all the way back to 99.74 again…

Now, for the Europeans… Well, EURUSD overshot my 1.2897 target by only 9 pips so I’m pretty comfortable with this. GBPUSD at 1.4467 this morning was a surprise but may well fit into the longer term rally better so I actually feel quite comfortable even though it overshot my target. The one that causes me a little concern is USDCHF which stalled in mid air again. I can’t see any target at 1.1740 where it stalled, though I can at 1.1775-94. However, if that breaks higher it does seem likely that EURUSD and GBPUSD may make additional lows – but then they’ll end in mid air…

It does therefore suggest we need some attention to the Europeans in general. I’d like to call and end to the Dollar’s gains but we’re going to have to try and find the level which confirms a larger reversal lower…

The combination of the moves in EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY combined to push the JPY crosses lower. These have lost all semblance of normal structure though I feel a correction is due soon – but the MT picture remains bearish. I’d prefer to remain neutral on these while the correction in USDJPY is seen and to make sure that the Dollar begins weakening again…

AUDUSD and USDCAD have gone mad. I have a preference for AUDUSD to reach 0.6894-0.6927 before this reverses higher while USDAD would appear to have potential to 1.2483 for a second time – but in the larger picture I remain bearish…

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups. The first technical trading webinar will be presented from this week – see details on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/TechnicalTradingWebinar.html.

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

Monday, April 20, 2009

While a small correction is expected look for Dollar gains to continue later today

What a strange day Friday turned out to be. Well, I thought it was strange anyway… After looking at the Dollar strength as corrective all week I had to voice my concern over the lack of any solid reversal lower on Friday and pointed out there was a growing risk that we’ll see the Dollar push above recent Dollar resistance levels at 1.3087 EURUSD, 1.1622 USDCHF and 1.4824 GBPUSD.

All those breaks occurred. What I found somewhat strange was the degree of the reactions. While USDCHF rallied all the way to 1.1687, a rise of 200 pips, the losses in EURUSD and GBPUSD were comparatively limited… I’m judging this from the point of view that I still see the Dollar strength as a correction to the losses from 1.2455 EURUSD and 1.1966 USDCHF and thus what cushion we have in these for further gains.

It has left me a little uncertain. However, from looking at the momentum position there isn’t any indication of any substantial high having been seen as yet. Thus I remain short term Dollar bullish but do see close resistance not far above Friday’s peaks and suspect that half the day, at least, will provide a correction. Once this correction is complete I feel we can still see eventual targets at 1.2897-1.2930 EURUSD, 1.1831 USDCHF and 1.4530-80 GBPUSD. For now I’ll take this step by step in the individual analyses.

This leaves the picture in USDJPY to be considered. It failed below my 100.04 target and has seen losses. I am encouraged with my bearish view still and to confirm the anticipated decline is going to be following through today we’ll need a break below 98.70 to maintain losses for the 98.13 low and I fancy a stronger move down to 97.09… Let’s see how this one goes…

This should keep the JPY crosses under pressure overall. However, I tend to see the progress here as more reflecting EURUSD and GBPUSD. Thus initially we could see a minor low and then some consolidation before additional losses. Thus, watch the respective supports in EURUSD/EURJPY and GBPUSD/GBPJPY and see how this may impact on USDJPY – possibly even some consolidation here too…

Finally, AUDUSD and USDCAD continue to confound and I prefer to wait for a stronger structure to develop in them both. If I have any preference here it is bearish AUDUSD and bullish USDCAD but take care as these have been somewhat erratic.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with Friday’s trade set ups. Details of a technical trading webinar that I shall be presenting over 3 sessions during this week and next can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/TechnicalTradingWebinar.html.

Have a profitable week.
Ian Copsey

Friday, April 17, 2009

Today should trigger a larger move...

I was correct yesterday in warning of another marginal Dollar high and this has come close to the 1.3087 low in EURUSD so we don’t really have too much space to play with in terms of seeing the Dollar resume its decline – as I would prefer – and a rather shocking break below 1.3087 which would imply another 150-200 points lower for EURUSD…

I can’t even say that I’ve found the reaction from yesterday’s Dollar highs to be particularly encouraging. There are Dollar bearish divergences in the hourly charts but that’s about it. So today something should happen and probably quite strongly – whichever direction that will be.

If I take a step back and look at everything in general I’ll stick with my bearish Dollar view. Even USDJPY appears to be in the last stage of a corrective rally that looks as if it will struggle to get back above 100 or at the most reach 100.65. Assuming one of these resistances hold the next leg should be heavily lower.

So, I remain sticking my neck out and calling for Dollar losses and this is my much stronger view. However, if I’m wrong the break levels are quite clear and it would be foolish to try and stand in the way of Dollar strength moving through 1.3087 EURUSD, 1.1519-47 USDCHF, 1.4824 GBPUSD and 100.70 USDJPY. If these are seen the follow-through should be around 150-200 points overall…

To add to my argument I still feel the JPY crosses are not really making easy headway in the upward corrections. There is risk of a little more consolidation but the downside does seem to beckon here too. If everything gets a lot more confusing than I’d wish, maybe it’ll be the weakness of the European currencies that takes these down rather than USDJPY. But I still look at that statement and think “naaahhhh…surely not…”

To be even USDCAD looks very soft and while it could stage a minor pullback today I still feel the downside is more attractive. AUDUSD continues to shroud itself in confusion, or maybe it’s just me that’s confused due to the daily bearish divergence. If anything it’s this one that makes me look over my shoulder to see whether the U.S. Dollar may in fact rally…

I think we’ll find out the answer by the end of today.

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups. Details of a technical trading webinar which will be presented over the next 2 weeks can be seen on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/TechnicalTradingWebinar.html.

Have a great weekend.
Ian Copsey

Thursday, April 16, 2009

The Dollar should resume its downtrend soon - but we need to navigate the risk of one more corrective rally

Yesterday went mostly as anticipated with a few exceptions. Basically we saw the Dollar extend its correction higher against the Euro and Swiss Franc but suffered versus a strong British Pound. It complicates things slightly but only really to the extent to whether the correction is complete or has further to go. Certainly it has done enough Elliott Wave terms but only to an extent that we are finely poised between two common structures. Even if we see the Dollar extend its gains a little further there isn’t much room for new highs and I do feel the larger downward move should begin quite soon.

Indeed, it is this larger Dollar decline that I prefer to focus on - not because I feel the correction is complete but because the downside has the larger profit potential. I am eying the 1.43-1.44 EURUSD and 1.05-1.07 USDCHF areas for around about one month’s time so the current uncertainty of whether it sees one extra push in the correction does seem quite minor in comparison.

In fact, if I have any preference, it is for the correction to deepen just a bit more today. There is a bearish divergence in GBPUSD and close to the 1.5076-00 area which, while it holds, could provide a swift pullback.

The other story is USDJPY. I was half right with the decline but my expected levels were a bit wayward. I did have support at 98.13 but hadn’t expected this particular level to hold. That it did and produced a deeper than expected pullback is frustrating but interestingly opens up a structure that, while there could be a slightly higher pullback, should eventually imply losses.

At least, we are now at a stage where, barring too complex a correction, we shall see a more decisive move. As you know my preference is lower – and by a long way – but I must counter that by saying that there is no real confirmation of a reversal to the uptrend. Thus it will be better to play the near term structure with caution but be aware of the levels that would open up a larger move – whichever way that may be.

EURJPY is more-or-less in line with expectations but the stronger Pound has forced a much deeper recovery in GBPJPY than I had thought would be the case. I’d still prefer to be bearish but we’ll have to watch break levels closely…

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be seen on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups. Details of my technical trading webinar can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/TechnicalTradingWebinar.html.

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

The main Dollar direction remains lower but I suspect a pullback today

Well, brief but relaxing is the verdict on the long weekend. I was at least able to partly recharge the batteries…

Some moves have surprised and some not over the past three days. What is clear is that the underlying Dollar weakness is not yet over and while there may be some short term uncertainty the coming 4-5 weeks should see the Dollar decline further.

My first reaction this morning for Dollar-Europe was that perhaps there could still be one more reaction higher. However, as I went through USDCHF and GBPUSD, while there is some argument for a pullback I don’t think it’ll be any more than that. Until that short term uncertainty has passed I have to say I find the levels that will hold during this phase rather vague. I am therefore quite cautious about today’s outlook. If I have any preference it is for the Dollar to try and resume its gains and then it’ll be a matter of where this correction ends…

Now, what does seem a little clearer to me is USDJPY… It did manage a pullback to 100.71 but has been steadily losing since and here I do see straight losses – or pretty straight – though I don’t think this is going to cause panic just yet. You will recall that I’ve been tentatively looking for a major reversal lower here and the declines in the JPY crosses have tended to match with this view. Still, the major level to break to confirm stronger losses is at the 95.95 corrective low. However, I really don’t see that being seen too quickly.

The same can be said of the JPY crosses which managed a modest correction over the past few days but appear to be much in the same position as USDJPY. That is to say, look for initial losses followed by a pullback. Once all of these are complete then the downside can accelerate but we probably won’t see that until next week at the earliest.

Elsewhere AUDUSD seems close to a peak which seems to conflict with the picture I have in mind for the Europeans. Therefore I’m a little cagey on this one and will want to see how the next 3-5 days trading go. USDCAD on the other hand has lost out and that still seems to have a little way to go.

Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be seen on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html together with trade set ups. Details of a technical trading webinar can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/TechnicalTradingWebinar.html.

Have a profitable week.
Ian Copsey

Thursday, April 9, 2009

The refusal to resume losses threatens a much stronger Dollar

Please note that The Daily Forecaster will take a break around Easter from 10th April to 14th April- so the report will resume on the 15th April.


While the Dollar found resistance within the boundaries I suggested against all three European currencies it has failed to see the subsequent stronger losses I had anticipated. This is really beginning to bug me and I have therefore to consider that the downward cycles will not take effect until later. I am also aware of the partial liquidity over Monday and Tuesday when much of the world is celebrating Easter and this has potential to subdue a market which has clearly not really jumped back on the Dollar bearish trend.

Thus today is going to be important. We have to see a swift resumption of the Dollar’s downtrend or we’re going to see a recycling of the correction that could see additional upward gains… Therefore, today is likely to be a day when we have to wait and work with the next break.

Even USDJPY behaved much the same as the previous few days following the decline from the 101.43 high. In fact, here I am beginning to get bearish. Again, I think it would be prudent to wait for breaks but the cycles are due to find a higher and if we see much more in the way of losses this could well accelerate. Even if it manages to climb higher again it is weighed down by the resistance levels at 101.90-14 and 103.14-34… A break below 98.95 will see further losses to 98.04-21 and eventually the 95.95 low is not out of the question.

Elsewhere the picture reflects the comments I have just made. AUDUSD has refused to budge and while still in a downward trend channel, breach may well provide the next larger trade. USDCAD is also entrapped by the same situation and frankly this does look like moving higher so it more a question of timing.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups. I shall be presenting my new technical trading webinar later this month. For details see http://www.fx-forecaster.com/TechnicalTradingWebinar.html.

Have a great extended break.
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

The Dollar pullback has been deep but I still feel losses will resume today

The Dollar correction has been much more aggressive than expected. It doesn’t change my basic Dollar bearish view and there are already signs that momentum is beginning to get strained. I still see cycles rising for the next 2 weeks or so and thus it is now more a case of when the next decline starts.

In GBPUSD that looks like it is already under way. It bounced nicely from support and thus we should be looking for the next leg higher that should retest and break the 1.4957-84 peaks… It may also be that USDCHF has already peaked but I’d like to allow for 1.1505 but this should also provide a bearish divergence to match those seen in EURUSD and GBPUSD.

I have more concerns over USDJPY. I can’t say that it has dipped any further than I thought it may but it’s the decline of the JPY crosses that has concerned. Given I’m bearish for the Dollar against the Europeans there may be a spillover impact on USDJPY if the crosses continue pushing lower.

Basically I still feel that we should be seeing a recovery but the whole situation does need some careful management. There is a large cycle high due here and as I mentioned yesterday USDJPY did reach its minimum target according to the wave structure. There is support at yesterday’s 99.84 low and also at 99.23. While these hold the bullish structure is not broken and projections will still imply the 103.14-33 area as a target.

If the 99.20 area is broken… beware as the slide could be quite persistent…

The Aussie remains in a tight range and we’ll have to manage this though it should follow the European trend higher but quite where the base will develop is uncertain. Yesterday’s 0.7040 low was quite interesting but it has failed to really react and attempt to push higher. Care required here. Finally, USDCAD did push a little higher but not as much as I had thought. While there is some conflict in the wave structure I still feel this should begin to push lower again.

Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups. A technical trading webinar will soon be launched later this month. See http://www.fx-forecaster.com/TechnicalTradingWebinar.html for details.

Good luck.

Please note that The Daily Forecaster will take a break around Easter from 10th April to 14th April.

Ian Copsey

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

The pullback in the Dollar looks all but done and should soon resume the bearish downtrend

The pullback in the Dollar versus the Europeans was pretty much in line with my thinking. The question is now whether the correction is complete. It’s not totally certain but my guess is that it is not and we may just see one more Dollar recovery in European time but I don’t expect this to be by very much more than this morning’s moves in early Asia.

Indeed, the depth of the corrections do point to a slightly different structure than I had been considering yesterday but this one probably fits in a little better with my eventual targets. Therefore, at the most I feel the Dollar may test its resistances at 1.3268-91 EURUSD, 1.1430-45 USDCHF and 1.4531-85 GBPUSD (probably closer to the higher level.) And that should be it. The next two weeks (approximately) should let the Dollar weaken much further so there is little room for many pullbacks.

Also of critical interest is USDJPY. I have some mixed thoughts here. The rally to reach 101.43 was close enough to the 101.30 minimum target that I have to consider the possibility that the final high has been seen. Certainly, from this point onwards while I may show a bullish preference the proximity of the cycle high is so close and the daily chart is showing a steep bearish divergence that the break lower could occur at any time.

The only thing that holds me back is the fact that hourly and 4-hour momentum has not really broken down. What appears to be the closest sign that we have seen the high here would be a break below 99.23-60. It’s a very close signal but I can’t see much room for any further losses than that. Until this break the slightly stronger probability remains a bullish move for 103.14-33. However, don’t fight a strong decline.

Even the JPY crosses have been weaker than I had expected and this adds to my caution. However, even here I don’t feel that short term momentum has quite broken down. Let’s just say that when these break lower we could be in for some fireworks so take care.

Elsewhere AUDUSD confuses but I still basically remain bullish but I’m struggling to find the right structure and therefore key levels. The low at 1.2223 in USDCAD was not altogether expected nor unexpected but within the downside target range. I suspect this too will soon find a high in the 1.2526-50 area before testing the lows again…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups. I shall be launching a technical trading webinar later this month. For details see http://www.fx-forecaster.com/TechnicalTradingWebinar.html.

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

Monday, April 6, 2009

The week should start slowly ... but should end with a bang...

I found Friday to be a rather mixed day. I had some successful calls and some not so successful. I retain the same basic views as I have held for the past few days – that EURUSD is due to reach 1.42-1.43 and USDCHF down to around 1.0650-1.0750 over the next two weeks or so. We are approaching resistance levels that unless broken are going to cause a correction to the Dollar losses thus far. Even GBPUSD seems to be struggling at this 1.4998 resistance and I’m thinking that we are therefore due to see the Dollar recover slightly over today and tomorrow. Once we had the correction I’ll then be looking for stronger follow-through all round and probably into the early part of next week.

USDJPY has taken a very choppy route higher but the 100.83-101.06 (max 101.30) resistance should hold for today and provide a correction. The next rally should be the last and I suspect that over the next 2 days (maybe 3) we’re going to see a very, very significant high. If I haven’t stressed that enough, I’ll label is a very, very, very, very significant high… My target remains at 102.14 minimum and 103.14-33 maximum. The next major target will be back at 87.10…

Clearly in line with USDJPY the JPY crosses are also towards the end of their respective rallies. The targets are a little more vague here but I’d go for the 140.27-61 area in EURJPY and either 152.00 GBPJPY or 153.68… Equally, these are on the brink of a stronger reversal lower.

AUDUSD is a little mixed though I’m tentatively looking at the 0.7192-0.7216 area as a potential near-term top and for a correction lower. USDCAD has been pressing lower but I doubt we’ll get below 1.2168-89 before a pullback at least.

So I suspect a fairly dull start to the week today with the Dollar unlikely to push through to new lows quite at this time, but by the end of the week we should begin to see a stronger push towards the targets I have mentioned above for the Europeans.

Today’s free analysis is for AUDUSD and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with Friday’s trade set ups. Details of a technical trading webinar can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/TechnicalTradingWebinar.html.

Have a profitable week.
Ian Copsey

Friday, April 3, 2009

The Dollar's underlying downtrend has resumed but may see a pullback soon

Well... it finally came. The Dollar has resumed its downtrend against the Europeans and this should continue for the next 2-3 weeks. I have rough targets for EURUSD at 1.43-1.44 and for USDCHF at 1.0650-1.0750 and I have to make up my mind on GBPUSD as this has a completely different wave structure. Now I just have to work out how it will get to those targets.

I suspect a less direct route than we saw in the rally from 1.2455 EURUSD and from 1.1966 USDCHF and indeed, I have a feeling that we’ll get a pullback tonight but there does first seem like risk of a marginal new low. I’ll detail the levels in the individual analyses but given tonight the U.S. non farm payrolls is due for release it will be well to understand where the break levels are. For GBPUSD I see potential to around 1.4821-50 but then we’ll have to watch and be aware. Overall, because I’m not looking for a direct follow-through lower in the Dollar it does suggest to me that we’re going to see a sizeable correction.

USDJPY failed to see the correction for which I was looking but has extended its gains directly. In some ways I am more comfortable with this as its cycle high is due next week so I’d rather see the rally to the 102-103 target area and then plan the reversal. The only word of caution is the minimum target from the wave structure at 101.30. If we start seeing a decline from here then just forget the higher target. Frankly, any level above the old 99.67 high raises the risk of reversal.

USDJPY dragged up the JPY crosses and strongly too. There’s still a bit to go on these as well but as with USDJPY the cycle tops are due so I do see this move as terminal.

AUDUSD climbed and USDCAD declined. Again, there’s only room for minor follow-through for now and the rest will need a deeper correction first.

Today’s free analysis is for GBPUSD and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups. Please note that I am planning to start a technical trading webinar from the middle of this month. Please see http://www.fx-forecaster.com/TechnicalTradingWebinar.html for details.

Have a great weekend.
Ian Copsey

Thursday, April 2, 2009

The lack of Dollar gains yesterday may open the way for losses today

After a mostly directionless day we are left in pretty much the same position as I described yesterday. There are a few more clues but still the conflict between wanting one more Dollar rally and the imminence of what should soon be a solid decline keeping us hanging in a void.

Firstly, USDJPY remained locked into the range of the single sharp drop seen at the start of Asian trading yesterday. There are no points awarded for guessing that a break of the 98.21-99.46 range has a high chance of producing a decent move. If there is any stronger argument it is on the downside but while I’m getting more & more nervous of what I feel is the impending drop I will only look for the 97.10-26 area and from there the final rally should develop.

The Dollar drifted lower to sideways against EURUSD and USDCHF but lost out more heavily in GBPUSD. I almost feel that the lack of any push higher yesterday should imply that we have seen the Dollar highs and thus the downtrend can resume. However, yesterday’s weakness was not all that impressive and does still generate blocks in my mind that maybe we’ll see one small attempt higher but not too far beyond what we’ve seen – maybe 1.3070-92 EURUSD and 1.1552-80 USDCHF…

The situation in the Europeans needs some TLC so best be cautious than reckless but also remember as we go forward there is an increasing risk of the Dollar’s downtrend resuming. Overall I have targets around 1.43 EURUSD and 1.0740 USDCHF…

Elsewhere the JPY crosses look mixed and need to break out of their ranges. AUSUSD may well have problems getting through 0.7030-54 initially at least while USDCAD looks more and more as if it’s going to retest the 1.2189-00 lows…

Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups. Details of an upcoming technical trading webinar can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/TechnicalTradingWebinar.html.

Good luck.
Ian Copsey

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

There is a mild status quo but I still feel there may be risk of one further Dollar rally...

Directionally things went pretty much as expected, the Dollar gaining against the Yen but losing out against the European currencies. As for levels where things should have stopped the results were more mixed.

The rally in USDJPY is good but we are now left with a decision to make – if this is to continue higher directly then we need this to happen soon and break above the 99.46-67 area to maintain the overall expectation of an eventual test of 101.30, 102.14 and possibly as high as 103.14-33. Given these higher areas are my targets for a major reversal lower it will mean that if there is any pullback from this morning’s high then it needs to be quite deep to allow the normal minimum projection ratios not to overtake the final targets. So here we need to be alert to the next break and what implications there will be once seen…

The other complication is that I am expecting a Dollar high to develop soon against the Europeans and for a period of 2 weeks (maybe 3) of upward pressure. The Dollar’s losses seen thus far have not been particularly impressive and I am tending towards and bout of Dollar strength today but best wait for breaks. Given the next 2-3 weeks are expected to produce Dollar weakness we must not fight any losses below 1.1340-55 USDCHF and above 1.4421 GBPUSD and 1.33 EURUSD.

Given my view on GBPUSD is still bearish for one more break lower I remain more keen on this event occurring today but with a reversal lower expected in the Dollar soon we must take care.

USDCAD is pushing higher this morning but watch out around the 1.2810-50 area… AUDUSD looks soft and the JPY crosses should either consolidate if USDJPY manages a break above 99.67 or expect quite a sharp pullback lower…

Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on
http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set ups. Please note that I shall shortly launch a technical trading webinar. Details can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/TechnicalTradingWebinar.html.

Good luck.

Please note that The Daily Forecaster will take a break around Easter from 10th April to 14th April.
Ian Copsey